DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00658.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84886240705
论文题名: Projection of global wave climate change toward the end of the twenty-first century
作者: Semedo A. ; Weisse R. ; Behrens A. ; Sterl A. ; Bengtsson L. ; Günther H.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2013
卷: 26, 期: 21 起始页码: 8269
结束页码: 8288
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmosphere-ocean interactions
; Global climate model
; Intergovernmental panel for climate changes
; Safety of navigation
; Sea state
; Significant wave height
; Southern Hemisphere
; Storm track
; Climate change
; Greenhouse gases
; Storms
; Uncertainty analysis
; Water waves
; Wind
; Ocean currents
; air-sea interaction
; atmospheric forcing
; climate change
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; greenhouse gas
; sea state
; storm track
; twenty first century
; wave climate
英文摘要: Wind-generated waves at the sea surface are of outstanding importance for both their practical relevance in many aspects, such as coastal erosion, protection, or safety of navigation, and for their scientific relevance in modifying fluxes at the air-sea interface. So far, long-term changes in ocean wave climate have been studied mostly from a regional perspective with global dynamical studies emerging only recently. Here a global wave climate study is presented, in which a globalwavemodel [WaveOceanModel(WAM)] is driven by atmospheric forcing from a global climate model (ECHAM5) for present-day and potential future climate conditions represented by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) A1B emission scenario. It is found that changes in mean and extreme wave climate toward the end of the twenty-first century are small to moderate, with the largest signals being a poleward shift in the annual mean and extreme significant wave heights in the midlatitudes of both hemispheres, more pronounced in the Southern Hemisphere and most likely associated with a corresponding shift in midlatitude storm tracks. These changes are broadly consistent with results from the few studies available so far. The projected changes in themean wave periods, associated with the changes in the wave climate in themiddle to high latitudes, are also shown, revealing amoderate increase in the equatorial eastern side of the ocean basins. This study presents a step forward toward a larger ensemble of global wave climate projections required to better assess robustness and uncertainty of potential futurewave climate change. © 2013 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51580
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden; Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht Centre for Materials and Coastal Research, Geesthacht, Germany; Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, Netherlands; National Centre for Earth Observation, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Semedo A.,Weisse R.,Behrens A.,et al. Projection of global wave climate change toward the end of the twenty-first century[J]. Journal of Climate,2013-01-01,26(21)