DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00183.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84886264586
论文题名: Atlantic hurricanes and climate change. part ii: Role of thermodynamic changes in decreased hurricane frequency
作者: Mallard M.S. ; Lackmann G.M. ; Aiyyer A.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2013
卷: 26, 期: 21 起始页码: 8513
结束页码: 8528
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Effect of temperature
; General circulation model
; High resolution simulations
; Hurricanes/typhoons
; Initial and boundary conditions
; Meso-scale models
; Thermodynamic conditions
; Tropical cyclone
; Climate change
; Moisture
; Thermodynamics
; Hurricanes
; boundary condition
; climate change
; general circulation model
; hurricane
; mesoscale meteorology
; synoptic meteorology
; thermodynamics
; wind shear
英文摘要: A method of downscaling that isolates the effect of temperature and moisture changes on tropical cyclone (TC) activity was presented in Part I of this study. By applying thermodynamic modifications to analyzed initial and boundary conditions from past TC seasons, initial disturbances and the strength of synoptic-scale vertical wind shear are preserved in future simulations. This experimental design allows comparison of TC genesis events in the same synoptic setting, but in current and future thermodynamic environments. Simulations of both an active (September 2005) and inactive (September 2009) portion of past hurricane seasons are presented. An ensemble of high-resolution simulations projects reductions in ensemble-average TC counts between 18% and 24%, consistent with previous studies. Robust decreases in TC and hurricane counts are simulated with 18-and 6-km grid lengths, for both active and inactive periods. Physical processes responsible for reduced activity are examined through comparison of monthly and spatially averaged genesis-relevant parameters, as well as case studies of development of corresponding initial disturbances in current and future thermodynamic conditions. These case studies show that reductions in TC counts are due to the presence of incipient disturbances in marginal moisture environments, where increases in the moist entropy saturation deficits in future conditions preclude genesis for some disturbances. Increased convective inhibition and reduced vertical velocity are also found in the future environment. It is concluded that a robust decrease in TC frequency can result from thermodynamic changes alone, without modification of vertical wind shear or the number of incipient disturbances. © 2013 American Meteorological Society. 资助项目: DOE, U.S. Department of Energy
; NSF, National Science Foundation
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51585
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, United States; National Exposure Research Laboratory, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Mail Drop E243-01, 109 T.W. Alexander Dr., Research Triangle Park NC 27711, United States
Recommended Citation:
Mallard M.S.,Lackmann G.M.,Aiyyer A.. Atlantic hurricanes and climate change. part ii: Role of thermodynamic changes in decreased hurricane frequency[J]. Journal of Climate,2013-01-01,26(21)