DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00769.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84885361348
论文题名: Influence of the southern annular mode on projected weakening of the atlantic meridional overturning circulation
作者: Spooner P.T. ; Johnson H.L. ; Woollings T.J.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2013
卷: 26, 期: 20 起始页码: 8017
结束页码: 8036
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Anthropogenic climate changes
; Atlantic meridional overturning circulations
; Coupled climate model
; Ekman transport
; Greenhouse-gas forcing
; North Atlantic
; Southern Annular Mode
; Southern ocean
; Climate change
; Climate models
; Greenhouse gases
; Regression analysis
; Oceanography
; Antarctic Oscillation
; climate change
; climate forcing
; climate modeling
; greenhouse gas
; meridional circulation
; overturn
; Southern Ocean
英文摘要: Coupled climate models predict density-driven weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) under greenhouse gas forcing, with considerable spread in the response between models. There is also a large spread in the predicted increase of the southern annular mode (SAM) index across these models. Regression analysis across model space using 11 non-eddy-resolving models suggests that up to 35% of the intermodel spread in the AMOC response may be associated with uncertainty in the magnitude of the increase in the SAM. Models with a large, positiveSAMindex response generally display a smaller weakening of the AMOC under greenhouse gas forcing. The initial AMOC strength is also a major cause of intermodel spread in its response to climate change. The increase in the SAMacts to reduce the weakening of theAMOC over the next century by around 1/ 3, through increases in wind stress over the Southern Ocean, northward Ekman transport, and upwelling around Antarctica. The SAM response is also related to an increase in the northward salt flux across 308S and to salinity anomalies in the high-latitude North Atlantic. These provide a positive feedback by further reinforcement of the AMOC. The results suggest that, compared with the real ocean where eddies oppose wind-driven changes in Southern Ocean circulation, climate models underestimate the effects of anthropogenic climate change on the AMOC. © 2013 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51607
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Earth Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Spooner P.T.,Johnson H.L.,Woollings T.J.. Influence of the southern annular mode on projected weakening of the atlantic meridional overturning circulation[J]. Journal of Climate,2013-01-01,26(20)