DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00832.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84881248161
论文题名: Future changes in northern hemisphere snowfall
作者: Krasting J.P. ; Broccoli A.J. ; Dixon K.W. ; Lanzante J.R.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2013
卷: 26, 期: 20 起始页码: 7813
结束页码: 7828
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmosphere-ocean global climate model
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Higher latitudes
; Northern Hemispheres
; Regional climate changes
; Surface air temperatures
; Temperature signal
; Total precipitation
; Climate change
; Climate models
; Snow
; air temperature
; atmosphere-ocean system
; climate change
; climate modeling
; computer simulation
; Northern Hemisphere
; precipitation (climatology)
; regional climate
; snow
; surface temperature
; twentieth century
; winter
; Eurasia
; North America
英文摘要: Using simulations performed with 18 coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), projections of the Northern Hemisphere snowfall under the representative concentration pathway (RCP4.5) scenario are analyzed for the period 2006-2100. These models perform well in simulating twentieth-century snowfall, although there is a positive bias in many regions. Annual snowfall is projected to decrease across much of the Northern Hemisphere during the twentyfirst century, with increases projected at higher latitudes. On a seasonal basis, the transition zone between negative and positive snowfall trends corresponds approximately to the -10°C isotherm of the late twentiethcentury mean surface air temperature, such that positive trends prevail in winter over large regions of Eurasia and North America. Redistributions of snowfall throughout the entire snow season are projected to occur- even in locations where there is little change in annual snowfall. Changes in the fraction of precipitation falling as snow contribute to decreases in snowfall across most Northern Hemisphere regions, while changes in total precipitation typically contribute to increases in snowfall.Asignal-to-noise analysis reveals that the projected changes in snowfall, based on the RCP 4.5 scenario, are likely to become apparent during the twenty-first century formost locations in the NorthernHemisphere. The snowfall signal emergesmore slowly than the temperature signal, suggesting that changes in snowfall are not likely to be early indicators of regional climate change. © 2013 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51616
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Environmental Science, Rutgers, State University of New Jersey, New Brunswick, NOAA/GFDL, 201 Forrestal Road, Princeton, NJ, United States; Department of Environmental Science, Rutgers, State University of New Jersey, New Brunswick, NJ, United States; NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ, United States
Recommended Citation:
Krasting J.P.,Broccoli A.J.,Dixon K.W.,et al. Future changes in northern hemisphere snowfall[J]. Journal of Climate,2013-01-01,26(20)