DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00749.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84885351897
论文题名: Response of tropical cyclones to idealized climate change experiments in a global high-resolution coupled general circulation model
作者: Bell R. ; Strachan J. ; Vidale P.L. ; Hodges K. ; Roberts M.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2013
卷: 26, 期: 20 起始页码: 7966
结束页码: 7980
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration
; Coupled general circulation models
; Environmental conditions
; Global environment
; Southern Hemisphere
; Tropical cyclone activity
; Vertical wind shear
; Walker circulation
; Atmospheric chemistry
; Climate change
; Experiments
; Hurricanes
; Carbon dioxide
; carbon dioxide
; climate change
; general circulation model
; tropical cyclone
; Walker circulation
; wind shear
英文摘要: The authors present an assessment of how tropical cyclone activity might change owing to the influence of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, using the U.K. High-Resolution Global Environment Model (HiGEM) with N144 resolution (;90km in the atmosphere and ;40km in the ocean). Tropical cyclones are identified using a feature-tracking algorithm applied to model output. Tropical cyclones from idealized 30-yr 2×CO2 (2CO2) and 4×CO2 (4CO2) simulations are compared to those identified in a 150-yr present-day simulation that is separated into a five-member ensemble of 30-yr integrations. Tropical cyclones are shown to decrease in frequency globally by 9% in the 2CO2 and 26% in the 4CO2. Tropical cyclones only become more intense in the 4CO2; however, uncoupled time slice experiments reveal an increase in intensity in the 2CO2. An investigation into the large-scale environmental conditions, known to influence tropical cyclone activity in the main development regions, is used to determine the response of tropical cyclone activity to increased atmospheric CO2.Aweaker Walker circulation and a reduction in zonally averaged regions of updrafts lead to a shift in the location of tropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere.Adecrease in mean ascent at 500 hPa contributes to the reduction of tropical cyclones in the 2CO2 in most basins. The larger reduction of tropical cyclones in the 4CO2 arises from further reduction of the mean ascent at 500 hPa and a large enhancement of vertical wind shear, especially in the Southern Hemisphere, North Atlantic, and northeast Pacific. © 2013 American Meteorological Society. 资助项目: NERC, Natural Environment Research Council
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51618
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, Earley Gate, P.O. Box 243, Reading,RG6 6BB, United Kingdom; National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; National Centre for Earth Observation, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Bell R.,Strachan J.,Vidale P.L.,et al. Response of tropical cyclones to idealized climate change experiments in a global high-resolution coupled general circulation model[J]. Journal of Climate,2013-01-01,26(20)