DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00551.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84884923274
论文题名: Multimodel detection and attribution of extreme temperature changes
作者: Min S.-K. ; Zhang X. ; Zwiers F. ; Shiogama H. ; Tung Y.-S. ; Wehner M.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2013
卷: 26, 期: 19 起始页码: 7430
结束页码: 7451
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Anthropogenic influence
; Anthropogenic signals
; Climate record
; Detection and attributions
; Extreme events
; Extreme temperature indices
; Nighttime temperatures
; Optimal fingerprinting
; Climate change
; Greenhouse gases
; Climate models
; air temperature
; anthropogenic effect
; climate change
; climate modeling
; detection method
; extreme event
; greenhouse gas
; twentieth century
英文摘要: Recent studies have detected anthropogenic influences due to increases in greenhouse gases on extreme temperature changes during the latter half of the twentieth century at global and regional scales. Most of the studies, however, were based on a limited number of climate models and also separation of anthropogenic influence from natural factors due to changes in solar and volcanic activities remains challenging at regional scales. Here, the authors conduct optimal fingerprinting analyses using 12 climate models integrated under anthropogenic-only forcing or natural plus anthropogenic forcing. The authors compare observed and simulated changes in annual extreme temperature indices of coldest night and day (TNn and TXn) and warmest night and day (TNx and TXx) from 1951 to 2000. Spatial domains from global mean to continental and subcontinental regions are considered and standardization of indices is employed for better intercomparisons between regions and indices. The anthropogenic signal is detected in global and northern continental means of all four indices, albeit less robustly for TXx, which is consistent with previous findings. The detected anthropogenic signals are also found to be separable from natural forcing influence at the global scale and to a lesser extent at continental and subcontinental scales. Detection occurs more frequently in TNx and TNn than in other indices, particularly at smaller scales, supporting previous studies based on different methods. A combined detection analysis of daytime and nighttime temperature extremes suggests potential applicability to a multivariable assessment. © 2013 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51634
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, VIC, Australia; Climate Research Division, Environment Canada, Toronto, ON, Canada; Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, University of Victoria, VIC, British Columbia, Canada; National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; Department of Earth Science, National Taiwan Normal University, Taipei, Taiwan; Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Min S.-K.,Zhang X.,Zwiers F.,et al. Multimodel detection and attribution of extreme temperature changes[J]. Journal of Climate,2013-01-01,26(19)