DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00626.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84884960891
论文题名: Hindcast of the 1976/77 and 1998/99 climate shifts in the Pacific
作者: Ding H. ; Greatbatch R.J. ; Latif M. ; Park W. ; Gerdes R.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2013
卷: 26, 期: 19 起始页码: 7650
结束页码: 7661
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate prediction
; ENSO
; Hindcasts
; Model initialization
; North Pacific
; Pacific decadal oscillation
; Climatology
; Experiments
; Oceanography
; Sea ice
; Climate models
; atmosphere-ice-ocean system
; atmosphere-ocean coupling
; climate prediction
; climate variation
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; general circulation model
; hindcasting
; Pacific Decadal Oscillation
; sea surface temperature
; teleconnection
; Pacific Ocean
英文摘要: The use of a coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea ice model to hindcast (i.e., historical forecast) recent climate variability is described and illustrated for the cases of the 1976/77 and 1998/99 climate shift events in the Pacific. The initialization is achieved by running the coupled model in partially coupled mode whereby global observed wind stress anomalies are used to drive the ocean/sea ice component of the coupled model while maintaining the thermodynamic coupling between the ocean/sea ice and atmosphere components. Here it is shown that hindcast experiments can successfully capture many features associated with the 1976/77 and 1998/99 climate shifts. For instance, hindcast experiments started from the beginning of 1976 can capture sea surface temperature (SST) warming in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific and the positive phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) throughout the 9 years following the 1976/77 climate shift, including the deepening of the Aleutian low pressure system. Hindcast experiments started from the beginning of 1998 can also capture part of the anomalous conditions during the 4 years after the 1998/99 climate. The authors argue that the dynamical adjustment of heat content anomalies that are present in the initial conditions in the tropics is important for the successful hindcast of the two climate shifts. © 2013 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51636
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Kiel, Germany; GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Kiel University, Kiel, Germany; Alfred-Wegener-Institut fur Polar- und Meeresforschung, Bremerhaven, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Ding H.,Greatbatch R.J.,Latif M.,et al. Hindcast of the 1976/77 and 1998/99 climate shifts in the Pacific[J]. Journal of Climate,2013-01-01,26(19)