DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00563.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84884239027
论文题名: Detection and attribution of observed changes in northern hemisphere spring snow cover
作者: Rupp D.E. ; Mote P.W. ; Bindoff N.L. ; Stott P.A. ; Robinson D.A.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2013
卷: 26, 期: 18 起始页码: 6904
结束页码: 6914
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Anthropogenic forcing
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Detection and attributions
; Global climate model
; Internal variability
; Northern hemisphere
; Northern Hemispheres
; Optimal fingerprinting technique
; Climate models
; Climatology
; Snow
; climate change
; climate forcing
; climate modeling
; Northern Hemisphere
; snow cover
; spring (season)
英文摘要: Significant declines in spring Northern Hemisphere (NH) snow cover extent (SCE) have been observed over the last five decades. As one step toward understanding the causes of this decline, an optimal fingerprinting technique is used to look for consistency in the temporal pattern of spring NH SCE between observations and simulations from 15 global climate models (GCMs) that form part of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. The authors examined simulations from 15 GCMs that included both natural and anthropogenic forcing and simulations from 7 GCMs that included only natural forcing. The decline in observed NH SCE could be largely explained by the combined natural and anthropogenic forcing but not by natural forcing alone. However, the 15 GCMs, taken as a whole, underpredicted the combined forcing response by a factor of 2. How much of this underprediction was due to underrepresentation of the sensitivity to external forcing of the GCMs or to their underrepresentation of internal variability has yet to be determined. © 2013 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51652
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Oregon Climate Change Research Institute, College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, United States; Institute of Marine and Antarctic Studies, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, Australia; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; Department of Geography, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, New Brunswick, NJ, United States
Recommended Citation:
Rupp D.E.,Mote P.W.,Bindoff N.L.,et al. Detection and attribution of observed changes in northern hemisphere spring snow cover[J]. Journal of Climate,2013-01-01,26(18)