DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00498.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84876921125
论文题名: Historical evaluation and future prediction of eastern North American and Western Atlantic extratropical cyclones in the CMIP5 models during the cool season
作者: Colle B.A. ; Zhang Z. ; Lombardo K.A. ; Chang E. ; Liu P. ; Zhang M.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2013
卷: 26, 期: 18 起始页码: 6882
结束页码: 6903
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Automated tracking
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Eastern north america
; Extratropical cyclones
; Future predictions
; Historical periods
; Maximum intensities
; Spatial resolution
; Climate models
; Sea level
; Storms
; algorithm
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; cyclogenesis
; cyclone
; extratropical environment
; storm track
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (North)
; United States
英文摘要: Extratropical cyclone track density, genesis frequency, deepening rate, and maximum intensity distributions over eastern North America and the western North Atlantic were analyzed for 15 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) for the historical period (1979-2004) and three future periods (2009-38, 2039-68, and 2069-98). The cyclones were identified using an automated tracking algorithm applied to sea level pressure every 6 h. The CMIP5 results for the historical period were evaluated using the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR). The CMIP5 models were ranked given their track density, intensity, and overall performance for the historical period. It was found that six of the top seven CMIP5 models with the highest spatial resolution were ranked the best overall. These models had less underprediction of cyclone track density, more realistic distribution of intense cyclones along the U.S. East Coast, and more realistic cyclogenesis and deepening rates. The best seven models were used to determine projected future changes in cyclones, which included a 10%-30% decrease in cyclone track density and weakening of cyclones over the western Atlantic storm track, while in contrast there is a 10%-20% increase in cyclone track density over the eastern United States, including 10%-40% more intense (<980 hPa) cyclones and 20%-40% more rapid deepening rates just inland of the U.S. East Coast. Some of the reasons for these CMIP5 model differences were explored for the selected models based on model generated Eady growth rate, upper-level jet, surface baroclinicity, and precipitation. © 2013 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51655
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY, United States
Recommended Citation:
Colle B.A.,Zhang Z.,Lombardo K.A.,et al. Historical evaluation and future prediction of eastern North American and Western Atlantic extratropical cyclones in the CMIP5 models during the cool season[J]. Journal of Climate,2013-01-01,26(18)