DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00514.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84883143966
论文题名: California winter precipitation change under global warming in the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 ensemble
作者: Neelin J.D. ; Langenbrunner B. ; Meyerson J.E. ; Hall A. ; Berg N.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2013
卷: 26, 期: 17 起始页码: 6238
结束页码: 6256
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; High resolution
; Intercomparisons
; Large-scale model experiments
; Precipitation change
; Rainfall distribution
; Regional model
; Winter precipitation
; Global warming
; Rain
; Storms
; comparative study
; ensemble forecasting
; global warming
; jet stream
; precipitation (climatology)
; rainfall
; regional climate
; storm track
; uncertainty analysis
; winter
; California
; United States
英文摘要: Projections of possible precipitation change in California under global warming have been subject to considerable uncertainty because California lies between the region anticipated to undergo increases in precipitation at mid-to-high latitudes and regions of anticipated decrease in the subtropics. Evaluation of the large-scale model experiments for phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) suggests a greater degree of agreement on the sign of the winter (December-February) precipitation change than in the previous such intercomparison, indicating a greater portion of California falling within the increased precipitation zone. While the resolution of global models should not be relied on for accurate depiction of topographic rainfall distribution within California, the precipitation changes depend substantially on largescale shifts in the storm tracks arriving at the coast. Significant precipitation increases in the region arriving at the California coast are associated with an eastward extension of the region of strong Pacific jet stream, which appears to be a robust feature of the large-scale simulated changes. This suggests that effects of this jet extension in steering storm tracks toward the California coast constitute an important factor that should be assessed for impacts on incoming storm properties for high-resolution regional model assessments. © 2013 American Meteorological Society. 资助项目: NSF, National Science Foundation
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51683
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Neelin J.D.,Langenbrunner B.,Meyerson J.E.,et al. California winter precipitation change under global warming in the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 ensemble[J]. Journal of Climate,2013-01-01,26(17)