DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00341.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84875832309
论文题名: Diagnosing present and future permafrost from climate models
作者: Slater A.G. ; Lawrence D.M.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2013
卷: 26, 期: 15 起始页码: 5608
结束页码: 5623
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Arctic
; Canadian Archipelago
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Land surface
; Land surface models
; Soil temperature
; Spatial and temporal distribution
; Temperature changes
; Climate change
; Climate models
; Temperature
; Permafrost
; arctic environment
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; general circulation model
; land surface
; permafrost
; soil temperature
; Arctic
英文摘要: Permafrost is a characteristic aspect of the terrestrial Arctic and the fate of near-surface permafrost over the next century is likely to exert strong controls on Arctic hydrology and biogeochemistry. Using output from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), the authors assess its ability to simulate present-day and future permafrost. Permafrost extent diagnosed directly from each climate model's soil temperature is a function of the modeled surface climate as well as the ability of the land surface model to represent permafrost physics. For each CMIP5 model these two effects are separated by using indirect estimators of permafrost driven by climatic indices and compared to permafrost extent directly diagnosed via soil temperatures. Several robust conclusions can be drawn from this analysis. Significant air temperature and snow depth biases exist in some model's climates, which degrade both directly and indirectly diagnosed permafrost conditions. The range of directly calculated present-day (1986-2005) permafrost area is extremely large (~4-25×106 km2). Several land models contain structural weaknesses that limit their skill in simulating cold region subsurface processes. The sensitivity of future permafrost extent to temperature change over the present-day observed permafrost region averages (1.67±0.7)x106km2°C-1 but is a function of the spatial and temporal distribution of climate change. Because of sizable differences in future climates for the representative concentration pathway (RCP) emission scenarios, a wide variety of future permafrost states is predicted by 2100. Conservatively, the models suggest that for RCP4.5, permafrost will retreat from the present-day discontinuous zone. Under RCP8.5, sustainable permafrost will be most probable only in the Canadian Archipelago, Russian Arctic coast, and east Siberian uplands. © 2013 American Meteorological Society. 资助项目: NSF, National Science Foundation
; NSF, National Science Foundation
; NSF, National Science Foundation
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51718
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: National Snow and Ice Data Center, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
Recommended Citation:
Slater A.G.,Lawrence D.M.. Diagnosing present and future permafrost from climate models[J]. Journal of Climate,2013-01-01,26(15)