DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00433.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84881640315
论文题名: Sensitivity of limiting hurricane intensity to SST in the atlantic from observations and GCMs
作者: Elsner J.B. ; Strazzo S.E. ; Jagger T.H. ; Larow T. ; Zhao M.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2013
卷: 26, 期: 16 起始页码: 5949
结束页码: 5957
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Florida State University
; Global climate model
; High-resolution atmospheric models
; Hurricane intensity
; Low sensitivity
; North Atlantic Ocean
; Ocean temperature
; Standard errors
; Atmospheric temperature
; Oceanography
; Hurricanes
; climate modeling
; hurricane
; observational method
; sea surface temperature
; sensitivity analysis
; uncertainty analysis
; vorticity
; wind field
; wind velocity
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (North)
英文摘要: A statistical model for the intensity of the strongest hurricanes has been developed and a new methodology introduced for estimating the sensitivity of the strongest hurricanes to changes in sea surface temperature.Here, the authors use this methodology on observed hurricanes and hurricanes generated from two global climate models (GCMs). Hurricanes over the North Atlantic Ocean during the period 1981-2010 show a sensitivity of 7.9 ± 1.19ms-1K-1 (standard error; SE) when over seas warmer than 25°C. In contrast, hurricanes over the same region and period generated from the GFDL High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM) show a significantly lower sensitivity with the highest at 1.8 ± 0.42ms-1K-1 (SE). Similar weaker sensitivity is found using hurricanes generated from the Florida State University Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (FSU-COAPS) model with the highest at 2.9 ±' 2.64ms-1K-1 (SE). A statistical refinement of HiRAM-generated hurricane intensities heightens the sensitivity to a maximum of 6.9±3.33ms-1K-1 (SE), but the increase is offset by additional uncertainty associated with the refinement. Results suggest that the caution that should be exercised when interpreting GCM scenarios of future hurricane intensity stems from the low sensitivity of limiting GCM-generated hurricane intensity to ocean temperature. © 2013 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51727
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: The Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, United States; NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States
Recommended Citation:
Elsner J.B.,Strazzo S.E.,Jagger T.H.,et al. Sensitivity of limiting hurricane intensity to SST in the atlantic from observations and GCMs[J]. Journal of Climate,2013-01-01,26(16)