DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00190.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84881239210
论文题名: The role of air-sea coupling in seasonal prediction of Asia-pacific summer monsoon rainfall
作者: Zhu J. ; Shukla J.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2013
卷: 26, 期: 15 起始页码: 5689
结束页码: 5697
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate prediction
; Climate prediction model
; Monsoons
; National centers for environmental predictions
; Root-mean square errors
; Seasonal forecasting
; Significant differences
; Summer monsoon rainfall
; Atmospheric thermodynamics
; Climate models
; Climatology
; Experiments
; Rain
; Forecasting
; atmosphere-ocean coupling
; boundary condition
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; ensemble forecasting
; forecasting method
; monsoon
; rainfall
; sea surface temperature
; seasonal variation
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Rim
英文摘要: This study examines the role of the air-sea coupled process in the seasonal predictability of Asia-Pacific summer monsoon rainfall by comparing seasonal predictions from two carefully designed model experiments: tier 1 (fully coupled model) and tier 2 (AGCM with prescribed SSTs). In these experiments, an identical AGCM is used in both tier 1 and tier 2 predictions; the daily mean SSTs from tier 1 coupled predictions are prescribed as a boundary condition in tier 2 predictions. Both predictions start in April from 1982 to 2009, with four ensemble members for each case. The model used is the Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), the current operational climate prediction model for seasonal-to-interannual prediction at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Comparisons indicate that tier 2 predictions produce not only higher rainfall biases but also unrealistically high rainfall variations in the tropical western North Pacific (TWNP) and some coastal regions as well. While the prediction skill in terms of anomaly correlations does not present a significant difference between the two types of predictions, the root-mean-square errors (RMSEs) are clearly larger over the above-mentioned regions in the tier 2 prediction. The reduced RMSE skills in the tier 2 predictions are due to the lack of a coupling process in AGCM-alone simulations, which, particularly, results in an unrealistic SST- rainfall relationship over the TWNP region. It is suggested that for a prediction of summer monsoon rainfall over the Asia-Pacific region, it is necessary to use a coupled atmosphere-ocean (tier 1) prediction system. © 2013 American Meteorological Society. 资助项目: NSF, National Science Foundation
; NOAA, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
; NASA, National Aeronautics and Space Administration
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51731
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Institute of Global Environment and Society, Calverton, MD, United States; Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, College of Science, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Zhu J.,Shukla J.. The role of air-sea coupling in seasonal prediction of Asia-pacific summer monsoon rainfall[J]. Journal of Climate,2013-01-01,26(15)