globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00584.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84880705656
论文题名:
Long-Term climate change commitment and reversibility: An EMIC intercomparison
作者: Zickfeld K.; Eby M.; Weaver A.J.; Alexander K.; Crespin E.; Edwards N.R.; Eliseev A.V.; Feulner G.; Fichefet T.; Forest C.E.; Friedlingstein P.; Goosse H.; Holden P.B.; Joos F.; Kawamiya M.; Kicklighter D.; Kienert H.; Matsumoto K.; Mokhov I.I.; Monier E.; Olsen S.M.; Pedersen J.O.P.; Perrette M.; Philippon-Berthier G.; Ridgwell A.; Schlosser A.; Von Deimling T.S.; Shaffer G.; Sokolov A.; Spahni R.; Steinacher M.; Tachiiri K.; Tokos K.S.; Yoshimori M.; Zeng N.; Zhao F.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2013
卷: 26, 期:16
起始页码: 5782
结束页码: 5809
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate projection ; Intergovernmental panel on climate changes ; Intermediate complexity ; Meridional overturning circulations ; Pre-industrial levels ; Radiative forcings ; Surface air temperatures ; Thermosteric sea level ; Atmospheric composition ; Atmospheric radiation ; Atmospheric temperature ; Climate change ; Sea level ; Carbon dioxide ; air temperature ; carbon dioxide ; climate change ; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ; radiative forcing ; sea level change
英文摘要: This paper summarizes the results of an intercomparison project with Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) undertaken in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The focus is on long-term climate projections designed to 1) quantify the climate change commitment of different radiative forcing trajectories and 2) explore the extent to which climate change is reversible on human time scales. All commitment simulations follow the four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and their extensions to year 2300. MostEMICs simulate substantial surface air temperature and thermosteric sea level rise commitment following stabilization of the atmospheric composition at year-2300 levels. The meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is weakened temporarily and recovers to near-preindustrial values in most models for RCPs 2.6-6.0. The MOC weakening is more persistent for RCP8.5. Elimination of anthropogenic CO2 emissions after 2300 results in slowly decreasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. At year 3000 atmospheric CO2 is still at more than half its year-2300 level in all EMICs forRCPs 4.5-8.5. Surface air temperature remains constant or decreases slightly and thermosteric sea level rise continues for centuries after elimination ofCO2 emissions in allEMICs.Restoration of atmosphericCO2 fromRCPto preindustrial levels over 100-1000 years requires large artificial removal of CO2 from the atmosphere and does not result in the simultaneous return to preindustrial climate conditions, as surface air temperature and sea level response exhibit a substantial time lag relative to atmospheric CO2. © 2013 American Meteorological Society.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51733
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作者单位: Department of Geography, Simon Fraser University, 8888 University Drive, Burnaby, BC V5A1S6, Canada; School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada; Earth and Life Institute, Georges Lemaître Centre for Earth and Climate Research, Université Catholique de Louvain, Louvain-La-Neuve, Belgium; The Open University, Milton Keynes, United Kingdom; A. M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, RAS, Moscow, Russian Federation; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States; University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom; Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; Research Institute for Global Change, JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Japan; The Ecosystems Center, MBL, Woods Hole, MA, United States; University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, United States; Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States; Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark; National Space Institute, Technical University of Denmark, Kongens Lyngby, Denmark; School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom; Department of Geophysics, University of Concepcion, Concepcion, Chile; University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan; University of Maryland, College Park, College Park, MD, United States; Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark; Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland

Recommended Citation:
Zickfeld K.,Eby M.,Weaver A.J.,et al. Long-Term climate change commitment and reversibility: An EMIC intercomparison[J]. Journal of Climate,2013-01-01,26(16)
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