| DOI: | 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00424.1
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| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-84881233802
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| 论文题名: | The gaussian statistical predictability of wind speeds |
| 作者: | Monahan A.H.
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| 刊名: | Journal of Climate
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| ISSN: | 8948755
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| 出版年: | 2013
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| 卷: | 26, 期:15 | | 起始页码: | 5563
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| 结束页码: | 5577
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| 语种: | 英语
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| Scopus关键词: | Air sea interactions
; Analytic expressions
; Climate variability
; Hydrologic cycles
; Moisture/moisture budgets
; Orthogonal vectors
; Statistical moments
; Wind speed prediction
; Forecasting
; Gaussian distribution
; Vectors
; Wind effects
; air-sea interaction
; climate prediction
; Gaussian method
; hydrological cycle
; moisture
; sea surface
; statistical analysis
; wind velocity
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| 英文摘要: | The statistical predictability of wind speed using Gaussian predictors, relative to the predictability of orthogonal vector wind components, is considered. With the assumption that the vector wind components are Gaussian, analytic expressions for the correlation-based wind speed prediction skill are obtained in terms of the prediction skills of the vector wind components and their statistical moments. It is shown that • at least one of the vector wind components is generally better predicted than the wind speed (often much more so); • wind speed predictions constructed from the predictions of vector wind components are more skillful than direct wind speed predictions; and • the linear predictability of wind speed (relative to that of the vector wind components) decreases as the variability in the vector wind increases relative to the mean. These idealized model results are shown to be broadly consistent with linear predictive skills assessed using observed sea surface wind from the SeaWinds scatterometer. Biases in the model predictions are shown to be related to the degree to which vector wind variations are non-Gaussian. © 2013 American Meteorological Society. |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51757
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: | School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Monahan A.H.. The gaussian statistical predictability of wind speeds[J]. Journal of Climate,2013-01-01,26(15)
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