DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00550.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84880657316
论文题名: Estimating the permafrost-carbon climate response in the CMIP5 climate models using a simplified approach
作者: Burke E.J. ; Jones C.D. ; Koven C.D.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2013
卷: 26, 期: 14 起始页码: 4897
结束页码: 4909
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate feedbacks
; Climate response
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Global temperatures
; Permafrost region
; Radiative forcings
; Soil organic carbon
; Soil temperature
; Atmospheric radiation
; Climate change
; Climate models
; Estimation
; Feedback
; Permafrost
; Soils
; Thawing
; Carbon
; active layer
; carbon
; carbon sink
; climate change
; climate effect
; climate feedback
; climate modeling
; estimation method
; organic carbon
; permafrost
; soil profile
; soil temperature
英文摘要: Under climate change, thawing permafrost may cause a release of carbon, which has a positive feedback on the climate. The permafrost-carbon climate response (gPF) is the additional permafrost-carbon made vulnerable to decomposition per degree of global temperature increase. A simple framework was adopted to estimate gPF using the database for phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The projected changes in the annual maximum active layer thicknesses (ALTmax) over the twenty-first century were quantified using CMIP5 soil temperatures. These changes were combined with the observed distribution of soil organic carbon and its potential decomposability to give gPF. This estimate of gPF is dependent on the biases in the simulated present-day permafrost. This dependency was reduced by combining a reference estimate of the present-day ALTmax with an estimate of the sensitivity of ALTmax to temperature from the CMIP5 models. In this case, γPF was from 26 to 266 PgC K-1(5th-95th percentile) with a radiative forcing of 0.03-0.29 W m-2 K-1. This range is mainly caused by uncertainties in the amount of soil carbon deeper in the soil profile and whether it thaws over the time scales under consideration. These results suggest that including permafrost-carbon within climate models will lead to an increase in the positive global carbon climate feedback. Under future climate change the northern high-latitude permafrost region is expected to be a small sink of carbon. Adding the permafrost-carbon response is likely to change this region to a source of carbon. ©2013 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51778
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; Earth Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, California, United States
Recommended Citation:
Burke E.J.,Jones C.D.,Koven C.D.. Estimating the permafrost-carbon climate response in the CMIP5 climate models using a simplified approach[J]. Journal of Climate,2013-01-01,26(14)