DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00542.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84879935658
论文题名: Analyzing enso teleconnections in cmip models as a measure of model fidelity in simulating precipitation
作者: Langenbrunner B. ; Neelin J.D.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2013
卷: 26, 期: 13 起始页码: 4431
结束页码: 4446
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric components
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Multi-model ensemble
; Root-mean square deviation
; Sea surface temperatures
; Seasonal precipitations
; Spatial correlation coefficients
; Spatial correlations
; Atmospheric pressure
; Atmospheric temperature
; Equipment testing
; Climate models
; atmospheric modeling
; climate modeling
; correlation
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; ensemble forecasting
; global warming
; precipitation (climatology)
; sea surface temperature
; teleconnection
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (Equatorial)
; South America
英文摘要: The accurate representation of precipitation is a recurring issue in climate models. El Ni~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) precipitation teleconnections provide a test bed for comparison of modeled to observed precipitation. The simulation quality for the atmospheric component of models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) phase 5 (CMIP5) is assessed here, using the ensemble of runs driven by observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Simulated seasonal precipitation teleconnection patterns are compared to observations during 1979-2005 and to the ensemble of CMIP phase 3 (CMIP3). Within regions of strong observed teleconnections (equatorial South America, the western equatorial Pacific, and a southern section of NorthAmerica), there is little improvement in the CMIP5 ensemble relative toCMIP3 in amplitude and spatial correlation metrics of precipitation. Spatial patterns within each region exhibit substantial departures from observations, with spatial correlation coefficients typically less than 0.5. However, the atmospheric models do considerably better in other measures. First, the amplitude of the precipitation response (root-mean-square deviation over each region) is well estimated by the mean of the amplitudes from the individual models. This is in contrast with the amplitude of the multimodel ensemble mean, which is systematically smaller (by about 30%-40%) in the selected teleconnection regions. Second, high intermodel agreement on teleconnection sign provides a good predictor for high model agreement with observed teleconnections. The ability of the model ensemble to yield amplitude and sign measures that agree with the observed signal for ENSO precipitation teleconnections lends supporting evidence for the use of correspondingmeasures in globalwarming projections. ©2013 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51779
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Langenbrunner B.,Neelin J.D.. Analyzing enso teleconnections in cmip models as a measure of model fidelity in simulating precipitation[J]. Journal of Climate,2013-01-01,26(13)