DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00421.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84880687612
论文题名: Assessment of trends and possible climate change impacts on summer moisture availability in western canada based on metrics of the palmer drought severity index
作者: Gobena A.K. ; Gan T.Y.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2013
卷: 26, 期: 13 起始页码: 4583
结束页码: 4595
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Annual precipitation
; Climate change impact
; Climate change scenarios
; Intergovernmental panel on climate changes
; Palmer drought severity indices
; Penman-Monteith method
; Potential evapotranspiration
; Preliminary analysis
; Drought
; Moisture
; Water supply
; Climate change
; air temperature
; algorithm
; atmospheric moisture
; climate change
; climate effect
; drought
; environmental assessment
; evapotranspiration
; extreme event
; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
; precipitation (climatology)
; summer
; British Columbia
; Canada
英文摘要: This paper compares three existing Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) formulations for simulating summer moisture variability in western Canada and a preliminary analysis of climate change impacts on summer moisture anomalies. The three models considered are Palmer's original algorithm (orPDSI), the selfcalibrating PDSI (scPDSI), and a version modified for Canadian Prairie conditions (cpPDSI). In all formulations, potential evapotranspiration was parameterized by the Penman-Monteith method instead of the traditional Thornthwaite method. The scPDSI was used as a benchmark for evaluation as it is more appropriate for comparing drought severity of diverse climates. The results confirm that orPDSI produces inflated drought statistics as compared to scPDSI, whereas cpPDSI produced more conservative drought statistics than scPDSI. On the basis of results from scPDSI, historical moisture availability in the Canadian Prairies has shown a significant downward trend since 1950 at the 5% level, whereas southern British Columbia has shown a significant increasing trend. No discernible trend was found in the northern parts of the study area. These results were corroborated by trends in annual precipitation and summer temperature over the respective regions. When scPDSI parameters were calibrated using historical climate data, simulations for the 2050s using climate change scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) showed increases in summer moisture deficit relative to the 1961-90 baseline. However, projecting the extent to which the frequency of extreme drought and/or wet spell categories will change is not trivial since the computation of scPDSI is tied to the definition of the frequency of extreme events. © 2013 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51785
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada
Recommended Citation:
Gobena A.K.,Gan T.Y.. Assessment of trends and possible climate change impacts on summer moisture availability in western canada based on metrics of the palmer drought severity index[J]. Journal of Climate,2013-01-01,26(13)