globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00589.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84880647021
论文题名:
Atmospheric carbon dioxide variability in the community earth system model: Evaluation and transient dynamics during the twentieth and twenty-first centuries
作者: Keppel-Aleks G.; Randerson J.T.; Lindsay K.; Stephens B.B.; Keith Moore J.; Doney S.C.; Thornton P.E.; Mahowald N.M.; Hoffman F.M.; Sweeney C.; Tans P.P.; Wennberg P.O.; Wofsy S.C.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2013
卷: 26, 期:13
起始页码: 4447
结束页码: 4475
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric carbon dioxide ; Atmospheric observations ; Community land models ; Fossil fuel emissions ; Horizontal gradients ; Interannual variability ; Northern Hemispheres ; Three-dimensional structure ; Atmospheric chemistry ; Climate change ; Fossil fuels ; Carbon dioxide ; annual variation ; biogeochemistry ; carbon dioxide ; climate change ; computer simulation ; ecosystem response ; environmental monitoring ; Northern Hemisphere ; spatiotemporal analysis ; twentieth century ; twenty first century
英文摘要: Changes in atmospheric CO2 variability during the twenty-first century may provide insight about ecosystem responses to climate change and have implications for the design of carbon monitoring programs. This paper describes changes in the three-dimensional structure of atmospheric CO2 for several representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) using the Community Earth System Model-Biogeochemistry (CESM1-BGC). CO2 simulated for the historical period was first compared to surface, aircraft, and column observations. In a second step, the evolution of spatial and temporal gradients during the twenty-first century was examined. The mean annual cycle in atmospheric CO2 was underestimated for the historical period throughout the Northern Hemisphere, suggesting that the growing season net flux in the Community Land Model (the land component of CESM) was too weak. Consistent with weak summer drawdown in Northern Hemisphere high latitudes, simulated CO2 showed correspondingly weak north-south and vertical gradients during the summer. In the simulations of the twenty-first century, CESM predicted increases in the mean annual cycle of atmospheric CO2 and larger horizontal gradients. Not only did the mean north-south gradient increase due to fossil fuel emissions, but east-west contrasts in CO2 also strengthened because of changing patterns in fossil fuel emissions and terrestrial carbon exchange. In the RCP8.5 simulation, where CO2 increased to 1150 ppm by 2100, the CESMpredicted increases in interannual variability in theNorthernHemispheremidlatitudes of up to 60%relative to present variability for time series filtered with a 2-10-yr bandpass. Such an increase in variability may impact detection of changing surface fluxes from atmospheric observations. ©2013 American Meteorological Society.
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被引频次[WOS]:39   [查看WOS记录]     [查看WOS中相关记录]
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51800
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA, United States; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, United States; Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, United States; Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, United States; Cooperative Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, United States; California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, United States; Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, United Kingdom

Recommended Citation:
Keppel-Aleks G.,Randerson J.T.,Lindsay K.,et al. Atmospheric carbon dioxide variability in the community earth system model: Evaluation and transient dynamics during the twentieth and twenty-first centuries[J]. Journal of Climate,2013-01-01,26(13)
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