DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00182.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84880696057
论文题名: Atlantic hurricanes and climate change. Part I: Experimental design and isolation of thermodynamic effects
作者: Mallard M.S. ; Lackmann G.M. ; Aiyyer A. ; Hill K.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2013
卷: 26, 期: 13 起始页码: 4876
结束页码: 4893
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Horizontal temperature gradient
; Intergovernmental panel on climate changes
; Lateral boundary conditions
; Parameterization schemes
; Thermodynamic changes
; Thermodynamic effect
; Vertical wind shear
; Weather research and forecasting models
; Climate change
; Hurricanes
; Thermodynamics
; Weather forecasting
; Shear flow
; boundary condition
; boundary layer
; climate change
; downscaling
; experimental design
; experimental study
; future prospect
; hurricane
; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
; parameterization
; temperature gradient
; thermodynamics
; wind shear
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (North)
英文摘要: The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used in a downscaling experiment to simulate a portion of the Atlantic hurricane season both in present-day conditions and with modifications to include future thermodynamic changes. Temperature and moisture changes are derived from an ensemble of climate simulations from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) A1B scenario and added to analyzed initial and lateral boundary conditions, leaving horizontal temperature gradients and vertical wind shear unaltered. This method of downscaling excludes future changes in shear and incipient disturbances, thereby isolating the thermodynamic component of climate change and its effect on tropical cyclone (TC) activity. The North Atlantic basin is simulated with 18-and 6-km grid spacing, and a four-member physics ensemble is composed by varying microphysical and boundary layer parameterization schemes. This ensemble is used in monthly simulations during an active (2005) and inactive (2009) season, and the simulations are able to capture the change in activity between the different years. TC frequency is better reproduced with use of 6-km grid spacing and explicitly simulated convection, relative to simulations with 18-km grid spacing. A detailed comparison of present-day and future ensemble results is provided in a companion study.©2013 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51804
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: North Carolina State University, Raleigh, United States; AIR Worldwide Corporation, Boston, MA, United States; National Exposure Research Laboratory, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC, United States
Recommended Citation:
Mallard M.S.,Lackmann G.M.,Aiyyer A.,et al. Atlantic hurricanes and climate change. Part I: Experimental design and isolation of thermodynamic effects[J]. Journal of Climate,2013-01-01,26(13)