DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00359.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84880686749
论文题名: Diagnosing northern hemisphere jet portrayal in 17 CMIP3 global climate models: Twenty-first-century projections
作者: Delcambre S.C. ; Lorenz D.J. ; Vimont D.J. ; Martin J.E.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2013
卷: 26, 期: 14 起始页码: 4930
结束页码: 4946
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Anthropogenic climate changes
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Global climate model
; Mean zonal winds
; Midlatitudes
; Northern Hemispheres
; Poleward shift
; Twentieth century
; Atmospheric pressure
; Global warming
; Wind
; Climate models
; anthropogenic effect
; climate change
; climate effect
; climate modeling
; ensemble forecasting
; global climate
; global warming
; jet flow
; jet stream
; Northern Hemisphere
; sea surface temperature
; Southern Oscillation
; tropopause
; twenty first century
; zonal wind
英文摘要: The anthropogenic climate change impacts on the eddy-jet system include an intensified midlatitude jet stream and an elevated tropopause, as well as a poleward-shifted jet. While both responses are evident in phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) ensemble mean twenty-first-century projections, uncertainty in the poleward shift response is large enough that even the sign of the shift is not consistent among all models, especially in the Northern Hemisphere. The present analysis finds that twentyfirst- century projections of the ensemble mean zonal wind change at 300 hPa predict a weakening and poleward expansion of the Pacific jet and an overall expansion of the Atlantic jet. In contrast with the direct zonal mean climate change signal of increasing midlatitude upper-level winds, zonal winds are projected to decrease in the core of the Pacific and Atlantic jets, with increasing zonal winds located primarily in the jet exit regions and the meridional flanks of the jets. Uncertainties in SST changes from the twentieth century to the twenty-first century between models are shown to impact modeled Northern Hemisphere jet stream changes. In particular, El Niñ o-Southern Oscillation-like mean winter SST changes explain 30% of intermodel variance of midlatitude zonal wind compared to the 8% explained by the domain-averaged warming SST signal. This suggests that a reduction of uncertainty in the tropical Pacific SST response to global warming will significantly reduce uncertainty in the Northern Hemisphere zonal wind response to climate change. ©2013 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51807
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Nelson Institute Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, United States; Nelson Institute Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, United States; Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, United States
Recommended Citation:
Delcambre S.C.,Lorenz D.J.,Vimont D.J.,et al. Diagnosing northern hemisphere jet portrayal in 17 CMIP3 global climate models: Twenty-first-century projections[J]. Journal of Climate,2013-01-01,26(14)