DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00342.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84880303717
论文题名: The impact of anthropogenic climate change on North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks
作者: Colbert A.J. ; Soden B.J. ; Vecchi G.A. ; Kirtman B.P.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2013
卷: 26, 期: 12 起始页码: 4088
结束页码: 4095
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Anthropogenic climate changes
; Central Atlantic
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Emissions scenarios
; Gulf of Mexico
; North Atlantic
; North Atlantic Ocean
; Tropical cyclone
; Climate change
; Computer simulation
; Greenhouse gases
; Hurricanes
; Oceanography
; anthropogenic effect
; climate change
; climate effect
; greenhouse gas
; tropical cyclone
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (North)
; Caribbean Sea
; Gulf of Mexico
英文摘要: The authors examine the change in tropical cyclone (TC) tracks that results from projected changes in the large-scale steering flow and genesis location from increasing greenhouse gases. Tracks are first simulated using a Beta and Advection Model (BAM) and NCEP-NCAR reanalysis winds for all TCs that formed in the North Atlantic Ocean's Main Development Region (MDR) for the period 1950-2010. Changes in genesis location and large-scale steering flow are then estimated from an ensemble mean of 17 models from phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) for the A1b emissions scenario. The BAMsimulations are then repeated with these changes to estimate how the TC tracks would respond to increased greenhouse gases. As the climate warms, the models project a weakening of the subtropical easterlies as well as an eastward shift in genesis location. This results in a statistically significant decrease in straight-moving (westward) storm tracks of ;5.5% and an increase in recurving (open ocean) tracks of ;5.5%. These track changes decrease TC counts over the southern Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean by 1-1.5 decade-1 and increase counts over the central Atlantic by 1-1.5 decade-1 Changes in the large-scale steering flow account for a vast majority of the projected changes in TC trajectories. © 2013 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51825
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, FL, United States; NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States
Recommended Citation:
Colbert A.J.,Soden B.J.,Vecchi G.A.,et al. The impact of anthropogenic climate change on North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks[J]. Journal of Climate,2013-01-01,26(12)