| DOI: | 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00462.1
|
| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-84880293705
|
| 论文题名: | Simple uncertainty frameworks for selecting weighting schemes and interpreting multimodel ensemble climate change experiments |
| 作者: | Sansom P.G.; Stephenson D.B.; Ferro C.A.T.; Zappa G.; Shaffrey L.
|
| 刊名: | Journal of Climate
|
| ISSN: | 8948755
|
| 出版年: | 2013
|
| 卷: | 26, 期:12 | | 起始页码: | 4017
|
| 结束页码: | 4037
|
| 语种: | 英语
|
| Scopus关键词: | Climate prediction
; Ensembles
; Extratropical cyclones
; North Atlantic Ocean
; Statistical techniques
; Climate models
; Oceanography
; Regression analysis
; Storms
; Uncertainty analysis
; Climate change
; climate change
; climate prediction
; cyclone
; ensemble forecasting
; extratropical environment
; numerical model
; uncertainty analysis
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (North)
|
| 英文摘要: | Future climate change projections are often derived from ensembles of simulations from multiple global circulationmodels using heuristicweighting schemes. This study provides amore rigorous justification for this by introducing a nested family of three simple analysis of variance frameworks. Statistical frameworks are essential in order to quantify the uncertainty associated with the estimate of the mean climate change response. The most general framework yields the "one model, one vote" weighting scheme often used in climate projection. However, a simpler additive framework is found to be preferable when the climate change response is not strongly model dependent. In such situations, the weighted multimodel mean may be interpreted as an estimate of the actual climate response, even in the presence of shared model biases. Statistical significance tests are derived to choose the most appropriate framework for specific multimodel ensemble data. The framework assumptions are explicit and can be checked using simple tests and graphical techniques. The frameworks can be used to test for evidence of nonzero climate response and to construct confidence intervals for the size of the response. The methodology is illustrated by application to North Atlantic storm track data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) multimodel ensemble. Despite large variations in the historical storm tracks, the cyclone frequency climate change response is not found to be model dependent over most of the region. This gives high confidence in the response estimates. Statistically significant decreases in cyclone frequency are found on the flanks of the North Atlantic storm track and in the Mediterranean basin. © 2013 American Meteorological Society. |
| Citation statistics: |
|
| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
|
| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51840
|
| Appears in Collections: | 气候变化事实与影响
|
|
There are no files associated with this item.
|
|
作者单位: | University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom; National Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
|
| Recommended Citation: | |
Sansom P.G.,Stephenson D.B.,Ferro C.A.T.,et al. Simple uncertainty frameworks for selecting weighting schemes and interpreting multimodel ensemble climate change experiments[J]. Journal of Climate,2013-01-01,26(12)
|
|
|