DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00450.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84878974130
论文题名: Is the interannual variability of the summer asian-pacific oscillation predictable?
作者: Huang Y. ; Wang H. ; Zhao P.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2013
卷: 26, 期: 11 起始页码: 3865
结束页码: 3876
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric circulation
; Atmospheric circulation anomaly
; General circulation model
; Inter-annual predictions
; Interannual variability
; Multi-model ensemble
; Subtropical anticyclone
; Tropical easterlies
; Climatology
; Weather forecasting
; Troposphere
; accuracy assessment
; annual variation
; anticyclone
; atmospheric circulation
; climate oscillation
; DEMETER
; ensemble forecasting
; general circulation model
; hindcasting
; jet flow
; prediction
; summer
; troposphere
; weather forecasting
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (North)
; Pacific Rim
英文摘要: The summer (June-August) Asian-Pacific Oscillation (APO) measures the interannual variability of largescale atmospheric circulation over the Asian-North Pacific Ocean sector. In this study, the authors assess the predictability of the summer APO index interannual variability and the associated atmospheric circulation anomalies using the 1959-2001 hindcast data from the European Centre forMedium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM), and the Met Office (UKMO) general circulation models from the Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonal-to- Interannual Prediction (DEMETER) project. The results showthat thesemodels predict the summerAPOindex interannual variability well and have higher skill for the North Pacific than for the Asian upper-tropospheric temperature. Meanwhile, the observed APO-related atmospheric circulation anomalies in the South Asian high, the tropical easterly wind jet over the Asian monsoon region in the upper troposphere, the subtropical anticyclone over the North Pacific, and the summer southwestmonsoon over Asia in the lower troposphere are reasonably well predicted in their spatial patterns and intensities. Compared with the observations, however, thesemodels display low skill in predicting the long-termvarying trends of the upper-tropospheric temperature over the Asian-North Pacific sector or the APO index during 1959-2001. © 2013 American Meteorological Society. 资助项目: National Natural Science Foundation of China
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51847
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Climate Change Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Climate Change Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Chinese Academy of Meteorological Science, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China
Recommended Citation:
Huang Y.,Wang H.,Zhao P.. Is the interannual variability of the summer asian-pacific oscillation predictable?[J]. Journal of Climate,2013-01-01,26(11)