globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00218.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84880304883
论文题名:
Attribution of projected future changes in tropical cyclone passage frequency over the western North Pacific
作者: Yokoi S.; Takayabu Y.N.; Murakami H.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2013
卷: 26, 期:12
起始页码: 4096
结束页码: 4111
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: East Asian countries ; Frequency changes ; General circulation model ; Oceanic regions ; Sea-surface temperature change ; Translation vector ; Tropical cyclone ; Western North Pacific ; Atmospheric temperature ; Climate change ; Climate models ; Oceanography ; Hurricanes ; climate modeling ; El Nino ; jet stream ; oceanic general circulation model ; sea surface temperature ; tropical cyclone ; Japan ; Korea ; Pacific Ocean ; Pacific Ocean (North)
英文摘要: This paper performs an attribution analysis of future changes in the frequency of tropical cyclone (TC) passages over the western North Pacific basin projected by seven general circulation models. The models project increases in the passage frequency over the tropical central North Pacific and decreases in regions to the west and northwest, including East Asian countries. The attribution analysis reveals that while changes of the basinwide TC count would decrease the frequency of passages throughout the basin, the gross horizontal contrast in the passage frequency changes is caused by a projected eastward shift of main TC development regions, probably caused by El Niño-like sea surface temperature changes. The change in the frequency of passages is also caused by changes of TC translation vectors and preferable tracks. In particular, the translation vector would rotate clockwise to point in a more easterly direction over oceanic regions south of Japan, decreasing the passage frequency over the Korean peninsula and western Japan while increasing it over eastern Japan. This change in translation direction may be caused by the southward shift of the subtropical jet axis and resultant intensification of westerly steering flows. The El Niño-like change and westerly steering flow change are consistent not only among the seven models but also among a number of other climate models, which suggests the reliability of these results from the viewpoint of intermodel agreement. © 2013 American Meteorological Society.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51850
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, Japan; Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokosuka, Japan; Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan

Recommended Citation:
Yokoi S.,Takayabu Y.N.,Murakami H.. Attribution of projected future changes in tropical cyclone passage frequency over the western North Pacific[J]. Journal of Climate,2013-01-01,26(12)
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