DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00377.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84878968913
论文题名: Greenhouse gas policy influences climate via direct effects of land-use change
作者: Jones A.D. ; Collins W.D. ; Edmonds J. ; Torn M.S. ; Janetos A. ; Calvin K.V. ; Thomson A. ; Chini L.P. ; Mao J. ; Shi X. ; Thornton P. ; Hurtt G.C. ; Wise M.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2013
卷: 26, 期: 11 起始页码: 3657
结束页码: 3670
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Anthropogenic activity
; Atmospheric constituents
; Atmospheric forcing
; Climate mitigations
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Earth system model
; Feedback mechanisms
; Stabilization target
; Atmospheric radiation
; Climate change
; Cooling systems
; Deforestation
; Greenhouse gases
; Vapors
; Computer simulation
; atmospheric forcing
; climate change
; climate effect
; environmental policy
; forest cover
; greenhouse gas
; human activity
; land use change
; radiative forcing
; socioeconomic impact
; twenty first century
; Climates
; Cooling Systems
; Deforestation
; Greenhouse Gases
; Radiation
; Simulation
; Vapors
英文摘要: Proposed climate mitigation measures do not account for direct biophysical climate impacts of land-use change (LUC), nor do the stabilization targets modeled for phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) representative concentration pathways (RCPs). To examine the significance of such effects on global and regional patterns of climatechange, a baseline and an alternative scenario of future anthropogenic activity are simulated within the Integrated Earth System Model, which couples the Global Change Assessment Model, Global Land-Use Model, and Community Earth System Model. The alternative scenario has high biofuel utilization and approximately 50% less global forest cover than the baseline, standard RCP4.5 scenario. Both scenarios stabilize radiative forcing from atmospheric constituents at 4.5 W m-2 by 2100. Thus, differences between their climate predictions quantify the biophysical effects of LUC. Offline radiative transfer and land model simulations are also utilized to identify forcing and feedback mechanisms driving the coupled response. Boreal deforestation is found to strongly influence climate because of increased albedo coupled with a regional-scalewater vapor feedback. Globally, the alternative scenario yields a twentyfirst- century warming trend that is 0.5°C cooler than baseline, driven by a 1 W m-2 mean decrease in radiative forcing that is distributed unevenly around the globe. Some regions are cooler in the alternative scenario than in 2005. These results demonstrate that neither climate change nor actual radiative forcing is uniquely related to atmospheric forcing targets such as those found in the RCPs but rather depend on particulars of the socioeconomic pathways followed to meet each target. © 2013 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51869
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United States; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, MD, United States; Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, United States; University of Maryland, College Park, MD, United States
Recommended Citation:
Jones A.D.,Collins W.D.,Edmonds J.,et al. Greenhouse gas policy influences climate via direct effects of land-use change[J]. Journal of Climate,2013-01-01,26(11)