DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00430.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84878980401
论文题名: Projected future changes in vegetation in western north America in the twenty-first century
作者: Jiang X. ; Rauscher S.A ; Ringler T.D. ; Lawrence D.M. ; Park Williams A. ; Allen C.D. ; Steiner A.L. ; Michael Cai D. ; Mcdowell N.G.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2013
卷: 26, 期: 11 起始页码: 3671
结束页码: 3687
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Earth system model
; Ecosystem carbons
; Emissions scenarios
; Rising temperatures
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Vegetation distribution
; Vegetation dynamics
; Atmospheric movements
; Atmospheric temperature
; Climate change
; Climate models
; Vegetation
; Forestry
; boundary condition
; climate change
; climate effect
; climate modeling
; drought stress
; evergreen tree
; forest dynamics
; global warming
; grass
; mortality
; sea surface temperature
; shrub
; twenty first century
; vegetation dynamics
; Climates
; Forestry
; Models
; Plants
; North America
; Hexapoda
; Poaceae
英文摘要: Rapid and broad-scale forest mortality associated with recent droughts, rising temperature, and insect outbreaks has been observed over western North America (NA). Climate models project additional future warming and increasing droughtand water stress for this region. To assess future potential changes in vegetation distributions in western NA, the Community Earth System Model (CESM) coupled with its Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) was used under the future A2 emissions scenario. To better span uncertainties in future climate, eight sea surface temperature (SST) projections provided by phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) were employed as boundary conditions. There is a broadconsensus among the simulations, despite differences in the simulated climate trajectories across the ensemble, that about half of the needleleaf evergreen tree coverage (from 24% to 11%) will disappear, coincident with a 14% (from 11% to 25%) increase in shrubs and grasses by the end of the twenty-first century in western NA, with most of the change occurring over the latter half of the twenty-first century. The net impact is a ;6 GtC or about 50% decrease in projected ecosystem carbon storage in this region. The findings suggest a potential for a widespread shift from tree-dominated landscapes to shrub and grass-dominated landscapes in westernNAbecause of future warming and consequent increases in water deficits. These results highlight the need for improved process-based understanding of vegetation dynamics, particularly including mortality and the subsequent incorporation of these mechanisms into earth system models to better quantify the vulnerability of western NA forests under climate change. © 2013 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51873
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Theoretical Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, United States; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; Earth and Environmental Sciences Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, United States; U.S. Geological Survey, Fort Collins Science Center, Jemez Mountains Field Station, Los Alamos, NM, United States; Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Space Sciences, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, United States; Space Data System Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, United States; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Atmospheric Chemistry Division, Boulder, CO, United States
Recommended Citation:
Jiang X.,Rauscher S.A,Ringler T.D.,et al. Projected future changes in vegetation in western north America in the twenty-first century[J]. Journal of Climate,2013-01-01,26(11)