| DOI: | 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00188.1
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| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-84874810144
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| 论文题名: | CMIP3 subtropical stratocumulus cloud feedback interpreted through a mixed-layer model |
| 作者: | Caldwell P.M.; Zhang Y.; Klein S.A.
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| 刊名: | Journal of Climate
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| ISSN: | 8948755
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| 出版年: | 2013
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| 卷: | 26, 期:5 | | 起始页码: | 1607
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| 结束页码: | 1625
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| 语种: | 英语
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| Scopus关键词: | Climate sensitivity
; Cloud amount
; Cloud fraction
; Cloud parameterizations
; Cloud physics
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Future climate scenarios
; Global climate model
; In-phase
; Inversion strength
; Liquid water paths
; Marine stratocumulus
; Mixed-layer models
; Model comparison
; Model errors
; Stratocumulus clouds
; Temporal variation
; Time-scales
; Climate change
; Clouds
; Global warming
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Tropics
; Climate models
; climate change
; climate modeling
; error analysis
; general circulation model
; global climate
; inverse analysis
; numerical model
; parameterization
; stratocumulus
; subtropical region
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| 英文摘要: | Large-scale conditions over subtropical marine stratocumulus areas are extracted from global climate models (GCMs) participating in phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) and used to drive an atmospheric mixed-layer model (MLM) for current and future climate scenarios. Cloud fraction is computed as the fraction of days whereGCMforcings produce a cloudy equilibriumMLMstate. This model is a good predictor of cloud fraction and its temporal variations on time scales longer than 1 week but overpredicts liquid water path and entrainment. GCM cloud fraction compares poorly with observations of mean state, variability, and correlation with estimated inversion strength (EIS). MLM cloud fraction driven by these same GCMs, however, agrees well with observations, suggesting that poor GCM low cloud fraction is due to deficiencies in cloud parameterizations rather than large-scale conditions. However, replacing the various GCM cloud parameterizations with a single physics package (the MLM) does not reduce intermodel spread in low-cloud feedback because theMLMismore sensitive than the GCMs to existent intermodel variations in large-scale forcing. This suggests that improving GCM low cloud physics will not by itself reduce intermodel spread in predicted stratocumulus cloud feedback. Differences in EIS and EIS change between GCMs are found to be a good predictor of current-climate MLM cloud amount and future cloud change. CMIP3 GCMs predict a robust increase of 0.5-1 K in EIS over the next century, resulting in a 2.3%-4.5% increase in MLM cloudiness. If EIS increases are real, subtropical stratocumulus may damp global warming in a way not captured by the GCMs studied. © 2013 American Meteorological Society. |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51987
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: | Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Caldwell P.M.,Zhang Y.,Klein S.A.. CMIP3 subtropical stratocumulus cloud feedback interpreted through a mixed-layer model[J]. Journal of Climate,2013-01-01,26(5)
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