DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00057.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84874847541
论文题名: Does knowing the oceanic PDO phase help predict the atmospheric anomalies in subsequent months?
作者: Kumar A. ; Wang H. ; Wang W. ; Xue Y. ; Hu Z.-Z.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2013
卷: 26, 期: 4 起始页码: 1268
结束页码: 1285
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric anomaly
; Atmospheric predictability
; Atmospheric teleconnection patterns
; Atmospheric variability
; Coupled models
; Ocean surfaces
; Pacific decadal oscillation
; Predictive values
; Atmospheric pressure
; Atmospheric temperature
; Computer simulation
; White noise
; atmospheric forcing
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; Pacific Decadal Oscillation
; prediction
; sea surface temperature
; teleconnection
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (Tropical)
英文摘要: Based on analysis of a coupled model simulations with and without variability associated with the El Nin o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), it is demonstrated that knowing the current value of the ocean surface temperature-based index of the Pacific decadal oscillation (the OPDO index), and the corresponding atmospheric teleconnection pattern, does not add a predictive value for atmospheric anomalies in subsequent months. This is because although the OPDO index evolves on a slow time scale, it does not constrain the atmospheric variability in subsequent months, which retains its character of white noise stochastic variability and remains largely unpredictable. Further, the OPDO adds little to the atmospheric predictability originating from the tropical Pacific during ENSO years. © 2013 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51999
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Climate Prediction Center, NOAA/NWS, NCEP, College Park, MD, United States; Wyle Science, Technology, and Engineering Group, McLean, VA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Kumar A.,Wang H.,Wang W.,et al. Does knowing the oceanic PDO phase help predict the atmospheric anomalies in subsequent months?[J]. Journal of Climate,2013-01-01,26(4)