DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00382.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84874815344
论文题名: A sensitivity analysis of surface biophysical, carbon, and climate impacts of tropical deforestation rates in CCSM4-CNDV
作者: Kendra Gotangco Castillo C. ; Gurney K.R.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2013
卷: 26, 期: 3 起始页码: 805
结束页码: 821
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Amazon basin
; Biosphere-atmosphere interactions
; Central Africa
; Climate impacts
; Climate variables
; Community climate system model
; Ecosystem carbons
; Ground temperature
; Land surface models
; Regional effects
; Significant impacts
; Southeast Asia
; Tree cover
; Tropical deforestation
; Tropical tree
; Vegetation-atmosphere interactions
; Biophysics
; Carbon
; Climate change
; Deforestation
; Sensitivity analysis
; Tropics
; Vegetation
; Climate models
; albedo
; biophysics
; carbon emission
; climate change
; climate effect
; climate feedback
; climate modeling
; deforestation
; land surface
; nitrogen
; regional climate
; sensitivity analysis
; tropical forest
; vegetation
; Carbon
; Climates
; Deforestation
; Plants
; Seasonal Variation
; Tropical Atmospheres
; Amazon Basin
英文摘要: The biophysical-climate and combined biophysical and carbon-climate feedbacks of tropical deforestation rates are explored through sensitivity analyses using the Community Climate System Model 4 with prognostic carbon-nitrogen and dynamic vegetation. Simulations test 5%, 2%, 1%, and 0.5% annual deforestation rates, each paired with preservation targets of 10% per tropical tree type. Perturbations are applied over pantropical land but analyses also investigate responses over the subcontinental areas of the Amazon basin, central Africa, and Southeast Asia. Sensitivities [expressed as the change in a variable per million square kilometers (Mkm2) of change in tree cover] and means of selected biophysical, carbon, and climate variables during and after deforestation are compared across rates. The most apparent effect of the rates is in hastening/ postponing climate change, but otherwise results show no consistent differences across rates and vary more across subcontinents (with the Amazon basin reflecting highest sensitivities in albedo and ground temperatures, and Southeast Asia for total ecosystem carbon). Additionally, biophysical feedbacks alone were found to have significant impact on climate over subcontinental scales. In the Amazon, ground temperature increase due to biophysical feedbacks is as much as 55%, and precipitation decrease up to 61%, of combined biophysical and carbon impacts. Replication with other models is required. Although it is still unclear whether a slow but prolonged deforestation differs in impacts from one that is rapid but short, the rate can still be relevant to planning with regards to the timing of impacts. © 2013 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/52027
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Purdue Climate Change Research Center, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, United States; School of Life Sciences, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, United States
Recommended Citation:
Kendra Gotangco Castillo C.,Gurney K.R.. A sensitivity analysis of surface biophysical, carbon, and climate impacts of tropical deforestation rates in CCSM4-CNDV[J]. Journal of Climate,2013-01-01,26(3)