DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00537.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84872903763
论文题名: On the robustness of emergent constraints used in multimodel climate change projections of arctic warming
作者: Bracegirdle T.J. ; Stephenson D.B.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2013
卷: 26, 期: 2 起始页码: 669
结束页码: 678
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: A1B scenarios
; Arctic warming
; Bering sea
; Climate change projections
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Emission scenario
; Global-mean temperature
; Grid points
; Historical models
; Midlatitudes
; Multi-model
; Multi-model ensemble
; North Atlantic
; Sea of Okhotsk
; Sea-ice edge
; Statistical relationship
; Surface air temperatures
; Temperature response
; Climate models
; Sea ice
; Weather modification
; Climate change
; air temperature
; climate change
; climate modeling
; ensemble forecasting
; error analysis
; global warming
; regression analysis
; temperature anomaly
; Arctic
; Bering Sea
; Pacific Ocean
; Sea of Okhotsk
英文摘要: Statistical relationships between future and historical model runs in multimodel ensembles (MMEs) are increasingly exploited to make more constrained projections of climate change. However, such emergent constraints may be spurious andcan arise because of shared (common) errors in a particularMMEor because of overly influential models. This study assesses the robustness of emergent constraints used for Arctic warming by comparison of such constraints in ensembles generated by the two most recent Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) experiments: CMIP3 and CMIP5. An ensemble regression approach is used to estimate emergent constraints in Arctic wintertime surface air temperature change over the twenty-first century under the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario in CMIP3 and the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario in CMIP5. To take account of different scenarios, this study focuses on polar amplification by using temperature responses at each grid point that are scaled by the global mean temperature response for each climate model. In most locations, the estimated emergent constraints are reassuringly similar in CMIP3 and CMIP5 and differences could have easily arisen from sampling variation. However, there is some indication that the emergent constraint and polar amplification is substantially larger in CMIP5 over the Sea of Okhotsk and the Bering Sea. Residual diagnostics identify one climate model in CMIP5 that has a notable influence on estimated emergent constraints over the Bering Sea and one in CMIP3 that that has a notable influence more widely along the sea ice edge and into midlatitudes over the western North Atlantic. © 2013 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/52062
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, United Kingdom; Mathematics Research Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Bracegirdle T.J.,Stephenson D.B.. On the robustness of emergent constraints used in multimodel climate change projections of arctic warming[J]. Journal of Climate,2013-01-01,26(2)