DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00449.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84871898001
论文题名: Is a transition to semipermanent drought conditions imminent in the U.S. great plains?
作者: Hoerling M.P. ; Eischeid J.K. ; Quan X.W. ; Diaz H.F. ; Webb R.S. ; Dole R.M. ; Easterling D.R.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2012
卷: 25, 期: 24 起始页码: 8380
结束页码: 8386
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change impact
; Drought conditions
; Drought severity
; Land surface models
; North America
; Palmer drought severity indices
; Simplifying assumptions
; Surface moistures
; Twentieth century
; Warming climate
; Water balance
; Climate change
; Climate models
; Global warming
; Soil moisture
; Surface waters
; Water supply
; Drought
; climate change
; climate effect
; climate modeling
; drought
; evapotranspiration
; global warming
; land surface
; runoff
; soil moisture
; surface water
; water budget
; Great Plains
; United States
英文摘要: How Great Plains climate will respond under global warming continues to be a key unresolved question. There has been, for instance, considerable speculation that the Great Plains is embarking upon a period of increasing drought frequency and intensity that will lead to a semipermanent Dust Bowl in the coming decades. This view draws on a single line of inference of how climate change may affect surface water balance based on sensitivity of the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI). A different view foresees a more modest climate change impact on Great Plains surface moisture balances. This draws on direct lines of analysis using land surface models to predict runoff and soil moisture, the results of which do not reveal an ominous fate for the Great Plains. The authors' study presents a parallel diagnosis of projected changes in drought as inferred from PDSI and soil moisture indicators in order to understand causes for such a disparity and to shed light on the uncertainties. PDSI is shown to be an excellent proxy indicator for Great Plains soil moisture in the twentieth century; however, its suitability breaks down in the twenty-first century, with the PDSI severely overstating surface water imbalances and implied agricultural stresses. Several lines of evidence and physical considerations indicate that simplifying assumptions regarding temperature effects on water balances, especially concerning evapotranspiration in Palmer's formulation, compromise its suitability as drought indicator in a warming climate. The authors conclude that projections of acute and chronic PDSI decline in the twenty-first century are likely an exaggerated indicator for future Great Plains drought severity. © 2012 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/52096
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States; Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, United States; NOAA/National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, NC, United States
Recommended Citation:
Hoerling M.P.,Eischeid J.K.,Quan X.W.,et al. Is a transition to semipermanent drought conditions imminent in the U.S. great plains?[J]. Journal of Climate,2012-01-01,25(24)