DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00490.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84871863227
论文题名: Is a decline of AMOC causing the warming hole above the North Atlantic in observed and modeled warming patterns?
作者: Drijfhout S. ; van Oldenborgh G.J. ; Cimatoribus A.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2012
卷: 25, 期: 24 起始页码: 8373
结束页码: 8379
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate variability
; Ensembles
; Model evaluation
; Pattern detection
; Trends
; Climatology
; Natural convection
; Regression analysis
; Oceanography
; air temperature
; climate change
; climate modeling
; climate variation
; convection
; ensemble forecasting
; global warming
; gyre
; meridional circulation
; model validation
; overturn
; regression analysis
; trend analysis
; Arctic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (North)
; Irminger Sea
; Labrador Sea
; Norwegian Sea
英文摘要: The pattern of global mean temperature (GMT) change is calculated by regressing local surface air temperature (SAT) to GMT for an ensemble of CMIP5 models and for observations over the last 132 years. Calculations are based on the historical period and climate change scenarios. As in the observations the warming pattern contains a warming hole over the subpolar North Atlantic. Using a bivariate regression of SAT to GMT and an index of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), the warming pattern is decomposed in a radiatively forced part and an AMOC fingerprint. The North Atlantic warming hole is associated with a decline of the AMOC. The AMOC fingerprint resembles Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV), but details of the pattern change when theAMOCdecline increases, underscoring the nonlinearity in the response. The warming hole is situated south of deep convection sites, indicating that it involves an adjustment of the gyre circulation, although it should be noted that some models feature deep convection in the middle of the subpolar gyre. The warming hole is already prominent in historical runs, where the response of the AMOCto GMT is weak, which suggests that it is involved in an ocean adjustment that precedes the AMOC decline. In the more strongly forced scenario runs, the warming hole over the subpolar gyre becomes weaker, while cooling over the Nordic seas increases, consistent with previous findings that deep convection in the Labrador and Irminger Seas is more vulnerable to changes in external forcing than convection in the Nordic seas, which only reacts after a threshold is passed. © 2012 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/52110
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 201, 3730AE De Bilt, Netherlands
Recommended Citation:
Drijfhout S.,van Oldenborgh G.J.,Cimatoribus A.. Is a decline of AMOC causing the warming hole above the North Atlantic in observed and modeled warming patterns?[J]. Journal of Climate,2012-01-01,25(24)