DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00009.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84870032190
论文题名: Limitations of seasonal predictability for summer climate over East Asia and the Northwestern Pacific
作者: Kosaka Y. ; Chowdary J.S. ; Xie S.-P. ; Min Y.-M. ; Lee J.-Y.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2012
卷: 25, 期: 21 起始页码: 7574
结束页码: 7589
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Asia
; ENSO
; Interannual variability
; Seasonal forecasting
; Summer/warm season
; Teleconnections
; Atmospheric pressure
; Atmospheric structure
; Climate change
; Forecasting
; Nickel compounds
; Roads and streets
; Sea level
; Silk
; annual variation
; climate prediction
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; ensemble forecasting
; hindcasting
; sea level pressure
; seasonal variation
; summer
; teleconnection
; Far East
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (Northwest)
; Nia
英文摘要: Predictability of summer climate anomalies over East Asia and the northwestern Pacific is investigated using observations and a multimodel hindcast ensemble initialized on 1 May for the recent 20-30 yr. Summertime East Asia is under the influence of the northwestern Pacific subtropical high (PASH). The Pacific-Japan (PJ) teleconnection pattern, a meridional dipole of sea level pressure variability, affects the northwestern PASH. The forecast models generally capture the association of the PJ pattern with the El Nĩo-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The Silk Road pattern, a wave train alongthe summer Asian jet, is another dominant teleconnection that influences the northwestern PASH and East Asia. In contrast to the PJ pattern, observational analysis reveals a lack of correlations between the Silk Road pattern and ENSO. Coupledmodels cannot predict the temporal phase of the Silk Road pattern, despite their ability to reproduce its spatial structure as the leading mode of atmospheric internal variability. Thus, the pattern is rather unpredictable at monthly to seasonal lead, limiting the seasonal predictability for summer in East Asia. The anomalous summer of 2010 in East Asia is a case in point, illustrating the interference by the Silk Road pattern. Canonical anomalies associated with a decayed El Nin~o and developing La Nĩa would have the PJ pattern bring a cold summer to East Asia in 2010. In reality, the Silk Road pattern overwhelmed this tendency, bringing a record-breaking hot summer instead. A dynamical model experiment indicates that European blocking was instrumental in triggering the Silk Road pattern in the 2010 summer. © 2012 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/52133
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: International Pacific Research Center, SOEST, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, United States; Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India; APEC Climate Center, Busan, South Korea
Recommended Citation:
Kosaka Y.,Chowdary J.S.,Xie S.-P.,et al. Limitations of seasonal predictability for summer climate over East Asia and the Northwestern Pacific[J]. Journal of Climate,2012-01-01,25(21)