DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00645.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84867685150
论文题名: Testing for the possible influence of unknown climate forcings upon global temperature increases from 1950 to 2000
作者: Anderson B.T. ; Knight J.R. ; Ringer M.A. ; Yoon J.-H. ; Cherchi A.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2012
卷: 25, 期: 20 起始页码: 7163
结束页码: 7172
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Aerosol effect
; Anthropogenic effects
; Atmospheric constituents
; Climate forcings
; Climate system
; Climate variability
; Energy budgets
; Forcing
; Forcing agents
; General circulation model
; Global climates
; Global temperatures
; Internal climate variability
; Internal modes
; Long-term trend
; Near surface temperature
; Near-surface
; Radiative forcings
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Sea surfaces
; Twentieth century
; Aerosols
; Atmospheric radiation
; Climate change
; Greenhouse gases
; Surface properties
; Atmospheric temperature
; air temperature
; anthropogenic effect
; climate change
; climate forcing
; climate modeling
; energy balance
; general circulation model
; global warming
; numerical model
; radiative forcing
; twentieth century
英文摘要: Global-scale variations in the climate system over the last half of the twentieth century, including long-term increases in global-mean near-surface temperatures, are consistent with concurrent human-induced emissions of radiatively active gases and aerosols. However, such consistency does not preclude the possible influence of other forcing agents, including internal modes of climate variability or unaccounted for aerosol effects. To test whether other unknown forcing agents may have contributed to multidecadal increases in global-mean nearsurface temperatures from 1950 to 2000, data pertaining to observed changes in global-scale sea surface temperatures and observed changes in radiatively active atmospheric constituents are incorporated into numerical global climatemodels. Results indicate that the radiative forcing needed to produce the observed long-term trends in sea surface temperatures-and global-mean near-surface temperatures-is provided predominantly by known changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols. Further, results indicate that less than 10%of the long-term historical increase in global-mean near-surface temperatures over the last half of the twentieth century could have been the result of internal climate variability. In addition, they indicate that less than 25%of the total radiative forcing needed to produce the observed long-term trend in global-mean near-surface temperatures could have been provided by changes in net radiative forcing from unknown sources (either positive or negative). These results, which are derived from simple energy balance requirements, emphasize the important role humans have played in modifying the global climate over the last half of the twentieth century. © 2012 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/52191
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Earth and Environment, Boston University, Boston, MA, United States; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States; Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici and, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna, Italy
Recommended Citation:
Anderson B.T.,Knight J.R.,Ringer M.A.,et al. Testing for the possible influence of unknown climate forcings upon global temperature increases from 1950 to 2000[J]. Journal of Climate,2012-01-01,25(20)