DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00590.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84867669805
论文题名: Changing the climate sensitivity of an atmospheric general circulation model through cloud radiative adjustment
作者: Sokolov A.P. ; Monier E.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2012
卷: 25, 期: 19 起始页码: 6567
结束页码: 6584
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Adjustment method
; Atmospheric general circulation models
; Climate forecasts
; Climate projection
; Climate sensitivity
; Community atmosphere model
; External forcing
; National center for atmospheric researches
; Radiative effects
; Regional pattern
; Sulfate aerosols
; Twentieth century
; Uncertain parameters
; Carbon dioxide
; Climate models
; Monte Carlo methods
; Climate change
; aerosol composition
; atmospheric general circulation model
; carbon dioxide
; climate change
; climate modeling
; cloud radiative forcing
; concentration (composition)
; Monte Carlo analysis
; probability
; sensitivity analysis
; twentieth century
; uncertainty analysis
英文摘要: Conducting probabilistic climate projections with a particular climate model requires the ability to vary the model's characteristics, such as its climate sensitivity. In this study, the authors implement and validate a method to change the climate sensitivity of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model, version 3 (CAM3), through cloud radiative adjustment. Results show that the cloud radiative adjustment method does not lead to physically unrealistic changes in the model's response to an external forcing, such as doubling CO 2 concentrations or increasing sulfate aerosol concentrations. Furthermore, this method has some advantages compared to the traditional perturbed physics approach. In particular, the cloud radiative adjustment method can produce any value of climate sensitivity within the wide range of uncertainty based on the observed twentieth century climate change. As a consequence, this method allows Monte Carlo-type probabilistic climate forecasts to be conducted where values of uncertain parameters not only cover the whole uncertainty range, but cover it homogeneously. Unlike the perturbed physics approach that can produce several versions of a model with the same climate sensitivity but with very different regional patterns of change, the cloud radiative adjustment method can only produce one version of the model with a specific climate sensitivity. As such, a limitation of this method is that it cannot cover the full uncertainty in regional patterns of climate change. © 2012 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/52209
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Sokolov A.P.,Monier E.. Changing the climate sensitivity of an atmospheric general circulation model through cloud radiative adjustment[J]. Journal of Climate,2012-01-01,25(19)