DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00655.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84864556363
论文题名: Mechanisms contributing to the warming hole and the consequent U.S. East-west differential of heat extremes
作者: Meehl G.A. ; Arblaster J.M. ; Branstator G.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2012
卷: 25, 期: 18 起始页码: 6394
结束页码: 6408
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Annual mean
; Climate simulation
; Community climate system model
; Convective heating
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Coupled models
; Data sets
; Ensemble averages
; Ensemble members
; Equatorial Pacific Ocean
; Forecast verifications
; Forecasting techniques
; High temperature
; Inter-decadal pacific oscillations
; Low temperatures
; Moisture convergence
; Multi-model
; Nowcasting
; Operational forecasting
; Surface air temperatures
; Surface temperatures
; Temperature changes
; Time-scales
; Twentieth century
; Western United States
; Algorithms
; Atmospheric temperature
; Computer simulation
; Climate models
; air temperature
; algorithm
; climate modeling
; forecasting method
; nowcasting
; temperature gradient
; weather forecasting
; United States
英文摘要: A linear trend calculated for observed annual mean surface air temperatures over the United States for the second-half of the twentieth century shows a slight cooling over the southeastern part of the country, the so-called warming hole, while temperatures over the rest of the country rose significantly. This east-west gradient of average temperature change has contributed to the observed pattern of changes of record temperatures as given by the ratio of daily record high temperatures to record low temperatures with a comparable east-west gradient. Ensemble averages of twentieth-century climate simulations in the Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3), show a slight west-east warming gradient but no warming hole. A warming hole appears in only several ensemble members in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multimodel dataset and in one ensemble member of simulated twentieth-century climate in CCSM3. In this model the warming hole is produced mostly from internal decadal time-scale variability originating mainly from the equatorial central Pacific associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Analyses of a long control run of the coupled model, and specified convective heating anomaly experiments in the atmosphere-only version of the model, trace the forcing of the warming hole to positive convective heating anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean near the date line. Cold-air advection into the southeastern United States in winter, and low-level moisture convergence in that region in summer, contribute most to the warming hole in those seasons. Projections show a disappearance of the warming hole, but ongoing greater surface temperature increases in the western United States compared to the eastern United States. © 2012 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/52237
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; CAWCR, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Meehl G.A.,Arblaster J.M.,Branstator G.. Mechanisms contributing to the warming hole and the consequent U.S. East-west differential of heat extremes[J]. Journal of Climate,2012-01-01,25(18)