| 英文摘要: | Hurricanes are causing increasing damage to many coastal regions worldwide1, 2. Offshore wind turbines can provide substantial clean electricity year-round, but can they also mitigate hurricane damage while avoiding damage to themselves? This study uses an advanced climate–weather computer model that correctly treats the energy extraction of wind turbines3, 4 to examine this question. It finds that large turbine arrays (300+ GW installed capacity) may diminish peak near-surface hurricane wind speeds by 25–41 m s−1 (56–92 mph) and storm surge by 6–79%. Benefits occur whether turbine arrays are placed immediately upstream of a city or along an expanse of coastline. The reduction in wind speed due to large arrays increases the probability of survival of even present turbine designs. The net cost of turbine arrays (capital plus operation cost less cost reduction from electricity generation and from health, climate, and hurricane damage avoidance) is estimated to be less than today’s fossil fuel electricity generation net cost in these regions and less than the net cost of sea walls used solely to avoid storm surge damage. Hurricane damage is increasing with expanding coastal development1 and rising sea levels2. Increasing temperatures may also increase hurricane intensity, but it is uncertain whether hurricane intensity changes so far have exceeded natural variability5. Continuing a long-term problem of hurricane damage, Hurricane Sandy in 2012 caused ~$82 billion in damage to three US states6 and 253 fatalities in seven countries. Hurricane Katrina destroyed much of New Orleans, Louisiana. Following Hurricane Sandy, sea walls were proposed to protect cities from hurricane storm surge. Such walls might cost $10–$29 billion for one city7, protect the areas only right behind the walls, and limit the access of populations to coastal zones. Large arrays of wind-wave pumps, which bring deep, cool water to the surface have also been proposed to reduce hurricane intensity8. This technology also serves one purpose. This study quantitatively tests whether large arrays of wind turbines installed offshore in front of major cities and along key coastal areas can extract sufficient kinetic energy from hurricane winds to reduce wind speed and storm surge, thus preventing damage to coastal structures as well as to the offshore turbines themselves. Unlike sea walls, offshore wind turbines would reduce both wind speed and storm surge and would generate electricity year-round. The hypothesis is tested here through numerical simulations with GATOR–GCMOM, a global-through-local climate–weather–air-pollution–ocean forecast model3, 4 (Supplementary Information). The model extracts the correct amount of energy from the wind at different model heights intersecting the turbine rotor3 given the instantaneous model wind speed, which is affected by turbulence and shear due to the hurricane and turbine itself (Supplementary Section 1.H). Several three-dimensional computer simulations without and with wind turbines were run for hurricanes Katrina and Isaac (US Gulf Coast) and Sandy (US East Coast; Methods and Table 1).
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