DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00741.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84867681971
论文题名: Projected changes in the seasonal cycle of surface temperature
作者: Dwyer J.G. ; Biasutti M. ; Sobel A.H.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2012
卷: 25, 期: 18 起始页码: 6359
结束页码: 6374
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmosphere-ocean interactions
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; General circulation model
; Global climate model
; High Latitudes
; Ice loss
; In-phase
; Midlatitudes
; Ocean surface temperature
; Open ocean
; Phase delay
; Seasonal cycle
; Surface heat fluxes
; Surface layers
; Surface temperatures
; Temperature response
; Atmospheric temperature
; Climate change
; Climate models
; Greenhouse gases
; Sea ice
; Specific heat
; Temperature
; Surface properties
; air-sea interaction
; climate change
; climate modeling
; general circulation model
; heat capacity
; heat flux
; sea ice
; seasonal variation
; summer
; surface temperature
英文摘要: When forced with increasing greenhouse gases, global climate models project a delay in the phase and a reduction in the amplitude of the seasonal cycle of surface temperature, expressed as later minimum and maximum annual temperatures and greater warming in winter than in summer. Most of the global mean changes come from the high latitudes, especially over the ocean. All 24 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 models agree on these changes and, over the twenty-first century, average a phase delay of 5 days and an amplitude decrease of 5% for the global mean ocean surface temperature. Evidence is provided that the changes are mainly driven by sea ice loss: as sea ice melts during the twenty-first century, the previously unexposed open ocean increases the effective heat capacity of the surface layer, slowing and damping the temperature response. From the tropics to the midlatitudes, changes in phase and amplitude are smaller and less spatially uniform than near the poles but are still prevalent in the models. These regions experience a small phase delay but an amplitude increase of the surface temperature cycle, a combination that is inconsistent with changes to the effective heat capacity of the system. The authors propose that changes in this region are controlled by changes in surface heat fluxes. © 2012 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/52251
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States
Recommended Citation:
Dwyer J.G.,Biasutti M.,Sobel A.H.. Projected changes in the seasonal cycle of surface temperature[J]. Journal of Climate,2012-01-01,25(18)