DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00342.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84865080829
论文题名: A method for estimating potential seasonal predictability: Analysis of covariance
作者: Feng X. ; Delsole T. ; Houser P.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2012
卷: 25, 期: 15 起始页码: 5292
结束页码: 5308
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Analysis of covariances
; Climate variability
; Extratropical
; Forcings
; Land areas
; Seasonal cycle
; Seasonal mean
; Seasonal variability
; Statistical parameters
; Statistical techniques
; Surface air temperatures
; Climatology
; Random processes
; Time series
; Regression analysis
; air temperature
; climate forcing
; climate prediction
; climate variation
; covariance analysis
; extratropical environment
; geostatistics
; regression analysis
; seasonal variation
; stochasticity
; surface temperature
; time series analysis
英文摘要: This paper proposes a new method for assessing potential predictability of seasonal means using a single realization of daily time series. Potential predictability is defined as variability in seasonal means that exceeds the variability due to weather stochastic processes. The proposed method is based on analysis of covariance and accounts for autocorrelation in daily time series and uncertainties in statistical parameters. The method is applied to reanalyzed daily surface air temperature and detects significant potential predictability over the oceans and equatorial land areas. Potential predictability is weaker and varies significantly with season over extratropical land areas, with the fraction of potentially predictable variance rarely exceeding 60%. The proposed method also produces an estimate of the potentially predictable component of seasonal means, which can be used to investigate the relation between potential predictability and possible boundary forcings. The results are generally consistent with previous studies, although a more detailed study will be made in a future paper. © 2012 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/52279
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Geography and Geoinformation Science, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, United States; Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Earth Sciences, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, United States; Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD, United States
Recommended Citation:
Feng X.,Delsole T.,Houser P.. A method for estimating potential seasonal predictability: Analysis of covariance[J]. Journal of Climate,2012-01-01,25(15)