globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00565.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84865104358
论文题名:
Probabilistic projections of anthropogenic climate change impacts on precipitation for the mid-Atlantic region of the United States
作者: Ning L.; Mann M.E.; Crane R.; Wagener T.; Najjar Jr. R.G.; Singh R.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2012
卷: 25, 期:15
起始页码: 5273
结束页码: 5291
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Anthropogenic climate changes ; Climate dynamics ; Climate prediction ; Climate variability ; Down-scaling ; Downscaling methods ; General circulation model ; North Atlantic oscillations ; Precipitation change ; Probabilistic projections ; Specific humidity ; State of Pennsylvania ; Statistical techniques ; Summer precipitation ; Winter precipitation ; Atmospheric pressure ; Climatology ; Conformal mapping ; Global warming ; Precipitation (chemical) ; Rain ; Climate models ; anthropogenic effect ; climate change ; climate modeling ; climate prediction ; climate variation ; downscaling ; general circulation model ; geostatistics ; global warming ; North Atlantic Oscillation ; precipitation (climatology) ; probability ; relative humidity ; Mid-Atlantic States ; Pennsylvania ; United States
英文摘要: This study uses an empirical downscaling method based on self-organizing maps (SOMs) to produce high- resolution, downscaled precipitation projections over the state of Pennsylvania in the mid-Atlantic region of the United States for the future period 2046-65. To examine the sensitivity of precipitation change to the water vapor increase brought by global warming, the authors test the following two approaches to down- scaling: one uses the specific humidity in the downscaling algorithm and the other does not. Application of the downscaling procedure to the general circulation model (GCM) projections reveals changes in the relative occupancy, but not the fundamental nature, of the simulated synoptic circulation states. Both downscaling approaches predict increases in annual and winter precipitation, consistent in sign with the "raw" output from the GCMs but considerably smaller in magnitude. For summer precipitation, larger discrepancies are seen between raw and downscaled GCM projections, with a substantial dependence on the downscaling version used (downscaled precipitation changes employing specific humidity are smaller than those without it). Application of downscaling generally reduces the inter-GCM uncertainties, suggesting that some of the spread among models in the raw projected precipitation may result from differences in precipitation pa- rameterization schemes rather than fundamentally different climate responses. Projected changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are found to be significantly related to changes in winter precipitation in the downscaled results, but not for the raw GCM results, suggesting that the downscaling more effectively captures the influence of climate dynamics on projected changes in winter precipitation. © 2012 American Meteorological Society.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/52292
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Department of Meteorology, and Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States; Department of Geography, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States; Department of Meteorology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States

Recommended Citation:
Ning L.,Mann M.E.,Crane R.,et al. Probabilistic projections of anthropogenic climate change impacts on precipitation for the mid-Atlantic region of the United States[J]. Journal of Climate,2012-01-01,25(15)
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