DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00344.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84865124432
论文题名: Optimal initial perturbations for ensemble prediction of the Madden-Julian oscillation during boreal winter
作者: Ham Y.-G. ; Schubert S. ; Chang Y.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2012
卷: 25, 期: 14 起始页码: 4932
结束页码: 4945
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate prediction
; Ensembles
; Forecasting techniques
; Intraseasonal variability
; Madden-Julian oscillation
; Tropical variabilty
; Climatology
; Random processes
; Vector spaces
; Forecasting
; correlation
; empirical analysis
; ensemble forecasting
; general circulation model
; Madden-Julian oscillation
; perturbation
; winter
; zonal wind
; Indian Ocean
英文摘要: An initialization strategy, tailored to the prediction of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), is evaluated using the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5 (GEOS-5), coupled general circulation model (CGCM). The approach is based on the empirical singular vectors (ESVs) of a reduced-space statistically determined linear approximation of the full nonlinear CGCM. The initial ESV, extracted using 10 years (1990-99) of boreal winter hindcast data, has zonal wind anomalies over the western Indian Ocean, while the final ESV (at a forecast lead time of 10 days) reflects a propagation of the zonal wind anomalies to the east over the Maritime Continent-an evolution that is characteristic of the MJO. A new set of ensemble hindcasts are produced for the boreal winter season from 1990 to 1999 in which the leading ESV provides the initial perturbations. The results are compared with those from a set of control hindcasts generated using random perturbations. It is shown that the ESV-based predictions have a systematically higher bivariate correlation skill in predicting the MJO compared to those using the random perturbations. Furthermore, the improvement in the skill depends on the phase of the MJO. The ESV is particularly effective in increasing the forecast skill during those phases of the MJO in which the control has low skill (with correlations increasing by as much as 0.2 at 20-25-day lead times), as well as during those times in which the MJO is weak. © 2012 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/52322
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Goddard Earth Sciences Technology and Research Studies and Investigations, Universities Space Research Association, Greenbelt, MD, United States
Recommended Citation:
Ham Y.-G.,Schubert S.,Chang Y.. Optimal initial perturbations for ensemble prediction of the Madden-Julian oscillation during boreal winter[J]. Journal of Climate,2012-01-01,25(14)