DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00236.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84865156567
论文题名: Track-pattern-based model for seasonal prediction of tropical cyclone activity in the western north Pacific
作者: Kim H.-S. ; Ho C.-H. ; Kim J.-H. ; Chu P.-S.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2012
卷: 25, 期: 13 起始页码: 4660
结束页码: 4678
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate forecasts
; Coastal regions
; Correlation coefficient
; Developed model
; Dynamical predictions
; Fuzzy C means clustering
; Hindcasts
; Leave-one-out cross validations
; National centers for environmental predictions
; Probabilistic information
; Seasonal characteristics
; Seasonal forecasting
; Seasonal mean
; Seasonal prediction
; Statistical relationship
; Track density
; Tropical cyclone
; Vulnerable area
; Western North Pacific
; Climatology
; Coastal zones
; Hurricanes
; Nickel compounds
; Forecasting
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; fuzzy mathematics
; hindcasting
; probability
; seasonal variation
; storm track
; tropical cyclone
; weather forecasting
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (North)
英文摘要: Skillful predictions of the seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) activity are important in mitigating the potential destruction from the TC approach/landfall in many coastal regions. In this study, a novel approach for the prediction of the seasonal TC activity over the western North Pacific is developed to provide useful probabilistic information on the seasonal characteristics of the TC tracks and vulnerable areas. The developed model, which is termed the ''track-pattern-based model,'' is characterized by two features: 1) a hybrid statistical- dynamical prediction of the seasonal activity of seven track patterns obtained by fuzzy c-means clustering of historical TC tracks and 2) a technique that enables researchers to construct a forecasting map of the spatial probability of the seasonal TC track density over the entire basin. The hybrid statistical-dynamical prediction for each pattern is based on the statistical relationship between the seasonal TC frequency of the pattern and the seasonal mean key predictors dynamically forecast by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System in May. The leave-one-out cross validation shows good prediction skill, with the correlation coefficients between the hindcasts and the observations ranging from 0.71 to 0.81. Using the predicted frequency and the climatological probability for each pattern, the authors obtain the forecasting map of the seasonal TC track density by combining the TC track densities of the seven patterns. The hindcasts of the basinwide seasonal TC track density exhibit good skill in reproducing the observed pattern. The El Niño-/La Niña-related years, in particular, tend to show a better skill than the neutral years. © 2012 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/52335
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; Department of Meteorology, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, United States; Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, Princeton University, NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States
Recommended Citation:
Kim H.-S.,Ho C.-H.,Kim J.-H.,et al. Track-pattern-based model for seasonal prediction of tropical cyclone activity in the western north Pacific[J]. Journal of Climate,2012-01-01,25(13)