DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00346.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84862109987
论文题名: Tropical cyclone climatology in a 10-km global atmospheric GCM: Toward weather-resolving climate modeling
作者: Manganello J.V. ; Hodges K.I. ; Kinter J.L. ; Cash B.A. ; Marx L. ; Jung T. ; Achuthavarier D. ; Adams J.M. ; Altshuler E.L. ; Huang B. ; Jin E.K. ; Stan C. ; Towers P. ; Wedi N.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2012
卷: 25, 期: 11 起始页码: 3867
结束页码: 3893
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate modeling
; Cumulus parameterization
; Environmental conditions
; Eyewall
; Forecast systems
; Future climate
; General circulation model
; Global climate simulations
; Hydrostatic model
; Intensity distribution
; Intensity fluctuations
; Model errors
; North Atlantic
; North Pacific
; Northern Hemispheres
; Realistic simulation
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Structural change
; Surface wind speed
; Track density
; Tropical cyclone
; Climate change
; Errors
; Hurricanes
; Sea ice
; Computer simulation
; atmospheric general circulation model
; climate modeling
; climatology
; environmental conditions
; global climate
; hurricane
; Northern Hemisphere
; sea ice
; sea surface temperature
; spatial distribution
; storm track
; tropical cyclone
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (North)
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (North)
英文摘要: Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclone (TC) activity is investigated in multiyear global climate simulations with theECMWFIntegrated Forecast System (IFS) at 10-km resolution forced by the observed records of sea surface temperature and sea ice. The results are compared to analogous simulationswith the 16-, 39-, and 125-km versions of the model as well as observations. In the North Atlantic, mean TC frequency in the 10-km model is comparable to the observed frequency, whereas it is too low in the other versions. While spatial distributions of the genesis and track densities improve systematically with increasing resolution, the 10-km model displays qualitatively more realistic simulation of the track density in the western subtropical North Atlantic. In the North Pacific, the TC count tends to be too high in thewest and too low in the east for all resolutions. These model errors appear to be associated with the errors in the large-scale environmental conditions that are fairly similar in this region for all model versions. The largest benefits of the 10-km simulation are the dramatically more accurate representation of the TC intensity distribution and the structure of the most intense storms. The model can generate a supertyphoon with a maximum surface wind speed of 68.4 m s21. The life cycle of an intense TC comprises intensity fluctuations that occur in apparent connection with the variations of the eyewall/rainband structure. These findings suggest that a hydrostatic model with cumulus parameterization and of high enough resolution could be efficiently used to simulate the TC intensity response (and the associated structural changes) to future climate change. © 2012 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/52355
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD, United States; National Centre for Earth Observation, NERC, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, United States; Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany; Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems, Seoul, South Korea; European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom; Universities Space Research Association, Columbia, MD, United States
Recommended Citation:
Manganello J.V.,Hodges K.I.,Kinter J.L.,et al. Tropical cyclone climatology in a 10-km global atmospheric GCM: Toward weather-resolving climate modeling[J]. Journal of Climate,2012-01-01,25(11)