DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00083.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84865188061
论文题名: Seasonal predictability of wintertime precipitation in Europe using the snow advance index
作者: Brands S. ; Manzanas R. ; Gutiérrez J.M. ; Cohen J.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2012
卷: 25, 期: 12 起始页码: 4023
结束页码: 4028
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Classical correlation
; Correlation coefficient
; Cross validation
; Empirical approach
; General circulation model
; Hindcasts
; Iberian Peninsula
; Predictor variables
; Sample sizes
; Seasonal forecasting
; Snow covers
; Southern Norway
; Catchments
; Snow
; climate prediction
; general circulation model
; hindcasting
; precipitation (climatology)
; regression analysis
; seasonal variation
; snow cover
; weather forecasting
; winter
; Iberian Peninsula
; Norway
英文摘要: This study tests the applicability of Eurasian snow cover increase in October, as described by the recently published snow advance index (SAI), for forecasting December-February precipitation totals in Europe. On the basis of a classical correlation analysis, global significance was obtained and locally significant correlation coefficients of up to 0.89 and 20.78 were found for the Iberian Peninsula and southern Norway, respectively. For a more robust assessment of these results, a linear regression approach is followed to hindcast the precipitation sums in a 1-yr-out cross-validation framework, using the SAI as the only predictor variable. With this simple empirical approach, local-scale precipitation could be reproduced with a correlation of up to 0.84 and 0.71 for the Iberian Peninsula and southern Norway, respectively, while catchment aggregations on the Iberian Peninsula could be hindcast with a correlation of up to 0.73. These findings are confirmed when repeating the hindcast approach to a degraded but much longer version of the SAI. With the recommendation to monitor the robustness of these results as the sample size of the SAI increases, the authors encourage its use for the purpose of seasonal forecasting in southern Norway and the Iberian Peninsula, where general circulation models are known to perform poorly for the variable in question. © 2012 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/52356
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Instituto de Física de Cantabria (CSIC-UC), Santander, Spain; Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Lexington, MA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Brands S.,Manzanas R.,Gutiérrez J.M.,et al. Seasonal predictability of wintertime precipitation in Europe using the snow advance index[J]. Journal of Climate,2012-01-01,25(12)