| 英文摘要: | Humans use fossil fuels in various activities tied to economic development, leading to increases in carbon emissions1, 2, 3, and economic development is widely recognized as a pathway to improving human well-being. Strategies for effective sustainability efforts require reducing the carbon intensity of human well-being (CIWB): the level of anthropogenic carbon emissions per unit of human well-being4, 5, 6, 7. Here I examine how the effect of economic development on CIWB has changed since 1970 for 106 countries in multiple regional samples throughout the world. I find that early in this time period, increased development led to a reduction in CIWB for nations in Africa, but in recent decades the relationship has changed, becoming less sustainable. For nations in Asia and South and Central America, I find that development increases CIWB, and increasingly so throughout the 40-year period of study. The effect of development on CIWB for nations in the combined regions of North America, Europe and Oceania has remained positive, relatively larger than in other regions, and stable through time. Although future economic growth will probably improve human well-being throughout the world8, this research suggests that it will also cost an increasing amount of carbon emissions. The relationship between carbon emissions and economic development receives considerable attention in research across the social sciences9, with studies finding notable changes in the emissions and development relationship through time10, 11. Likewise, the relationship between human well-being and economic development is a foundational empirical question in public health research12. Although most research reveals strong associations between enhanced well-being and development, some studies find that the strength of the relationship weakens through time8. However, limited attention has been paid to the amount of anthropogenic carbon emissions generated per unit of well-being—that is, the CIWB, and how it might be impacted by economic development4, 5, 6, 13. As important, most cross-national research on development and emissions or development and well-being overlooks differences in regional-level patterns and changes, and analyses of regional samples of nations are potentially important for scientific discovery. Such a level of aggregation allows for investigating broad-based relationships, while being situated within regional contexts14. For example, public health research shows that the effect of urban slum prevalence on child mortality varies greatly by region. This variation is unobserved if the analysis is conducted for all nations combined in one sample15. Similarly, longitudinal research shows that the estimated effect of population size on national-level carbon emissions differs greatly for nations in different regions, and the relationship changes through time in ways unique to each regional sample of nations16. These differences are overlooked if nations are not analysed in separate regionally defined groups. There are significant policy implications for research that focuses on development and CIWB. As economic growth is a common objective of governments and international organizations, given its potential for improving well-being, understanding the relationship between development and CIWB is critical. If development leads to reductions in CIWB, the pursuit of economic growth will have the beneficial side effect of enhancing sustainability. However, if economic growth has little or no beneficial effect on CIWB, then climate change mitigation and other sustainability efforts will be successful only if policies that supplement growth promotion are enacted. If economic growth increases CIWB, then development policies may pose additional challenges for climate change mitigation and must be reconsidered or balanced with new approaches to counter these unintended environmental impacts. In this study I use national-level panel data for the 1970–2009 period to quantify CIWB as a ratio between per capita anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions (from fossil fuel combustion and cement manufacturing) and average life expectancy at birth. Using measures of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita (measured in constant 2000 US dollars, based on exchange rates), I employ statistical modelling techniques and interaction variables between GDP per capita and time to assess the extent to which the effect of economic development on CIWB changes through time. Fig. 1 graphs the CIWB measures for eight nations from different regions of the world for the 1970–2009 period, and Fig. 2 shows their GDP per capita measures. The eight nations are chosen to illustrate the diversity in levels and trajectories of national-level CIWB and economic development throughout the world, and the importance in assessing the relationship between them.
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