| DOI: | 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00408.1
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| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-84862008127
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| 论文题名: | Downscaling extremes-an intercomparison of multiple statistical methods for present climate |
| 作者: | Bürger G.; Murdock T.Q.; Werner A.T.; Sobie S.R.; Cannon A.J.
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| 刊名: | Journal of Climate
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| ISSN: | 8948755
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| 出版年: | 2012
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| 卷: | 25, 期:12 | | 起始页码: | 4366
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| 结束页码: | 4388
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| 语种: | 英语
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| Scopus关键词: | Bias correction
; British Columbia , Canada
; Climate index
; Climate simulation
; Combined test
; Complex indices
; Down-scaling
; Index values
; Intercomparisons
; Quantile regression
; Spatial disaggregation
; Statistical downscaling
; Testing procedure
; Climatology
; Testing
; climate modeling
; computer simulation
; downscaling
; extreme event
; regression analysis
; statistical analysis
; British Columbia
; Canada
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| 英文摘要: | Five statistical downscaling methods [automated regression-based statistical downscaling (ASD), bias correction spatial disaggregation (BCSD), quantile regression neural networks (QRNN), TreeGen (TG), and expanded downscaling (XDS)] are compared with respect to representing climatic extremes. The tests are conducted at six stations from the coastal, mountainous, and taiga region of British Columbia, Canada, whose climatic extremes are measured using the 27 Climate Indices of Extremes (ClimDEX; http://www.climdex.org/climdex/index.action) indices. All methods are calibrated from data prior to 1991, and tested against the two decades from 1991 to 2010. A three-step testing procedure is used to establish a given method as reliable for any given index. The first step analyzes the sensitivity of a method to actual index anomalies by correlating observed and NCEP-downscaled annual index values; then, whether the distribution of an index corresponds to observations is tested. Finally, this latter test is applied to a downscaled climate simulation. This gives a total of 486 single and 162 combined tests. The temperature-related indices pass about twice as many tests as the precipitation indices, and temporally more complex indices that involve consecutive days pass none of the combined tests. With respect to regions, there is some tendency of better performance at the coastal and mountaintop stations. With respect to methods, XDS performed best, on average, with 19% (48%) of passed combined (single) tests, followed by BCSD and QRNN with 10% (45%) and 10% (31%), respectively, ASD with 6% (23%), and TG with 4% (21%) of passed tests. Limitations of the testing approach and possible consequences for the downscaling of extremes in these regions are discussed. © 2012 American Meteorological Society. |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/52372
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: | Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada; Environment Canada, Vancouver, BC, Canada
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Bürger G.,Murdock T.Q.,Werner A.T.,et al. Downscaling extremes-an intercomparison of multiple statistical methods for present climate[J]. Journal of Climate,2012-01-01,25(12)
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