DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00254.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84862751940
论文题名: Skill, correction, and downscaling of GCM-simulated precipitation
作者: Eden J.M. ; Widmann M. ; Grawe D. ; Rast S.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2012
卷: 25, 期: 11 起始页码: 3970
结束页码: 3984
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Annual precipitation
; Atmospheric variability
; Bias
; Climate simulation
; Cross validation
; Direct assessment
; Down-scaling
; European centre for medium-range weather forecasts
; General circulation model
; Global correlation
; Mean precipitation
; Model errors
; Model output statistics
; Precipitation change
; Precipitation variability
; Reanalysis
; Seasonal precipitations
; Statistical downscaling
; Temporal change
; Temporal evolution
; Climatology
; Precipitation (chemical)
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Weather forecasting
; Climate models
; atmospheric general circulation model
; climate modeling
; downscaling
; error correction
; precipitation (climatology)
; statistical analysis
英文摘要: The ability of general circulation models (GCMs) to correctly simulate precipitation is usually assessed by comparing simulated mean precipitation with observed climatologies. However, to what extent the skill in simulating average precipitation indicates how well the models represent temporal changes is unclear. A direct assessment of the latter is hampered by the fact that freely evolving climate simulations for past periods are not set up to reproduce the specific evolution of internal atmospheric variability. Therefore, model-toreal-world comparisons of time series of daily, monthly, or annual precipitation are not meaningful. Here, for the first time, the authors quantifyGCMskill in simulating precipitation variability using simulations in which the temporal evolution of the large-scale atmospheric state closely matches that of the real world. This is achieved by nudging the atmospheric states in the ECHAM5 GCM, but crucially not the precipitation field itself, toward the 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-40). Global correlation maps between observed and simulated seasonal precipitation allow areas in which simulated future precipitation changes are likely to be meaningful to be identified. In many areas, correlations higher than 0.8 are found. This means also that in these regions the simulated precipitation is a very good predictor for the true precipitation, and thus a statistical correction of the simulated precipitation, which can include a downscaling component, can provide useful estimates for local-scale precipitation. The authors show that a simple scaling of the simulated precipitation performs well in a cross validation and thus appears to be a promising alternative to standard statistical downscaling approaches. © 2012 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/52394
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, United Kingdom; Meteorological Institute, KlimaCampus, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany; Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Eden J.M.,Widmann M.,Grawe D.,et al. Skill, correction, and downscaling of GCM-simulated precipitation[J]. Journal of Climate,2012-01-01,25(11)