DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00217.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84862097090
论文题名: Quantification of uncertainty in high-resolution temperature scenarios for North America
作者: Li G. ; Zhang X. ; Zwiers F. ; Wen Q.H.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2012
卷: 25, 期: 9 起始页码: 3373
结束页码: 3389
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Down-scaling
; Emission scenario
; Ensembles
; General circulation model
; High resolution
; Internal variability
; Mean temperature
; Median value
; Modeling errors
; Probabilistic projections
; Regional climate models
; Regional model
; Small scale
; Spatial scale
; Spatial variability
; Special report on emissions scenarios
; Statistical downscaling
; Statistical relationship
; Structural errors
; Summer temperature
; Surface temperatures
; Temperature changes
; Total variance
; Climate models
; Errors
; Regression analysis
; Climate change
; air temperature
; climate change
; climate modeling
; downscaling
; ensemble forecasting
; general circulation model
; regional climate
; regression analysis
; spatial variation
; surface temperature
; uncertainty analysis
; United States
英文摘要: A framework for the construction of probabilistic projections of high-resolution monthly temperature over North America using available outputs of opportunity from ensembles of multiple general circulation models (GCMs) and multiple regional climate models (RCMs) is proposed. In this approach, a statistical relationship is first established between RCM output and that from the respective drivingGCM and then this relationship is applied to downscale outputs from a larger number of GCM simulations. Those statistically downscaled projections were used to estimate empirical quantiles at high resolution. Uncertainty in the projected temperature was partitioned into four sources including differences in GCMs, internal variability simulated by GCMs, differences in RCMs, and statistical downscaling including internal variability at finer spatial scale. Large spatial variability in projected future temperature changes is found, with increasingly larger changes toward the north in winter temperature and larger changes in the central United States in summer temperature. Under a given emission scenario, downscaling from large scale to small scale is the most important source of uncertainty, though structural errors in GCMs become equally important by the end of the twentyfirst century. Different emission scenarios yield different projections of temperature change. This difference increases with time. The difference between the IPCC's Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B1 in the median values of projected changes in 30-yr mean temperature is small for the coming 30 yr, but can become almost as large as the total variance due to internal variability and modeling errors in both GCM and RCM later in the twenty-first century. © 2012 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/52411
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Meteorological Service of Canada-Ontario Region, Environment Canada, Toronto, ON, Canada; Climate Research Division, Environment Canada, Toronto, ON, Canada; Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, Victoria, BC, Canada; Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
Recommended Citation:
Li G.,Zhang X.,Zwiers F.,et al. Quantification of uncertainty in high-resolution temperature scenarios for North America[J]. Journal of Climate,2012-01-01,25(9)