DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00191.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84859986597
论文题名: Model-based estimation of dynamic effect on twenty-first-century precipitation for swiss river basins
作者: Rudolph J.V. ; Friedrich K. ; Germann U.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2012
卷: 25, 期: 8 起始页码: 2897
结束页码: 2913
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate classification/regimes
; Climate prediction
; Community climate system model
; Complex terrains
; Constant frequency
; Dynamic effects
; General circulation model
; Global climate model
; Heavy precipitation
; High resolution
; Large-scale circulation
; Model-based estimation
; River basins
; Switzerland
; Synoptic weather patterns
; Total precipitation
; Climatology
; Precipitation (chemical)
; Radar
; Watersheds
; Climate models
; climate classification
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; complex terrain
; general circulation model
; precipitation (climatology)
; river basin
; synoptic meteorology
; twenty first century
; Switzerland
英文摘要: Projections of twenty-first-century precipitation for seven Swiss river basins are generated by linking highresolution (2 km × 2 km) radar-estimated precipitation observations to a global climate model (GCM) via synoptic weather patterns. The use of synoptic patterns characterizes the effect of changes in large-scale circulation, or dynamic effects, on precipitation. In each basin observed total daily precipitation received during advective synoptic patterns is shown to be dependent on the basin's general topographic aspect. Across all basins convective synoptic patterns follow the same trend in total daily precipitation with cyclonic patterns consistently producing a larger amount of precipitation than anticyclonic patterns. Identification of synoptic patterns from a GCM for the twenty-first century [Community Climate System Model, version 3.0, (CCSM3)] shows increasing frequency of anticyclonic synoptic patterns, decreasing frequency of cyclonic patterns, and constant frequency of advective patterns over Switzerland. When coupled with observed radar-estimated precipitation for each synoptic pattern, the changes in synoptic pattern frequencies result in an approximately 10%- 15%decrease in decadal precipitation over the course of the twenty-first century for seven Swiss river basins. The study results also show an insignificant change in the future (twenty-first century) probability of exceeding the current (2000-08) 95th quantile of total precipitation. The lack of a trend in exceeding the 95th quantile of precipitation in combination with a decreasing trend in total precipitation provides evidence that dynamic effects will not result in increased frequency of heavy precipitation events, but that heavy precipitation will account for a greater proportion of total precipitation in Swiss river basins by the end of the twenty-first century. © 2012 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/52457
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, United States; MeteoSwiss, Locarno, Switzerland
Recommended Citation:
Rudolph J.V.,Friedrich K.,Germann U.. Model-based estimation of dynamic effect on twenty-first-century precipitation for swiss river basins[J]. Journal of Climate,2012-01-01,25(8)